Historical data between 1990 and 2019 is taken from Mexico’s National Inventory of Greenhouse Gases and Compounds (INEGyCEI in Spanish) (INECC, 2021b). Since the 2021 version of the inventory does not provide emissions and removals from forestry between 1990 and 1999, we have used the ones from the previous version of the inventory for that period (INECC, 2018c). For years 2020 and 2021, we estimate emissions based on a sectoral approach. For the energy and industry sectors we assume a correlation between emissions and GDP, and thus apply economic growth forecasts from the IMF (IMF, 2022). For agriculture and waste sectors, we extend the last five years of pre-COVID historic trend.
Mexico’s emissions inventory was developed using the IPCC’s 2006 inventory guidelines and its 2019 update and takes Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Since the inventory provides granular information specifying all gases and sectors per year, we were able to convert these to AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report) GWPs by averaging emissions excl. LULUCF for the years 1990- 2019.
NDC and other targets
The 2022 NDC update specifies that 5% of the 35% unconditional target is to be achieved with already agreed international support for clean energies. We have thus estimated the unconditional target – to be achieved with own resources – as a 30% reduction from BAU in 2030.
Due to the lack of a detailed sectoral contribution towards the achievement of the 2022 NDC update – particularly the forestry sector, we have estimated a range of the contributions of this sector based on the emissions and sinks in the BAU baseline and the historical BAU base year (2013):
- The lower end of the range is taken directly from the 2022 NDC BAU. This is quite optimistic as it assumes no reduction of the baseline emissions sources under the baseline.
- The upper end is taken form the last inventory (Gobierno de México, 2022; INECC, 2021c). This assumption on the other hand implies no change in both sources and emissions from the land use, land use change and forestry sector from the historical base year used in the BAU. Historically. The LULUCF sector in Mexico has been a stable sink of around 200MtCO2 during the last 20 years.
Our calculations of the emissions level for the NDC targets, excluding LULUCF emissions, is:
- Unconditional target: 786-863 MtCO2e in 2030
- Conditional target: 689-766 MtCO2e in 2030
As land use, land use change and forestry emissions are mostly CO2, we have not converted these numbers to AR4 GWPs.
We did not harmonise the NDC baseline scenario to the historical emissions pathway as in previous NDC submissions, the NDC target depended directly on the reference scenario included in the NDC (they provided absolute numbers linked to the targeted reduction).
We have re-calculated the absolute emissions level of the 2020 NDC using the same assumptions on the contribution of the forestry sector, and thus the numbers in the table vary from previous updates. This leads to even higher emissions than originally estimated for both unconditional and conditional targets. The rating of the unconditional 2020 NDC worsens by one category from “Insufficient” to “Highly insufficient”.
Although not specified in the submission, historically, Mexico has reported emissions using Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) which we converted to GWPs of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).
The 2022 NDC update also includes an adaptation component as well as a target to reduce black carbon (BC) between 51%-70% below BAU. Given that reductions in BC are generally not additional to those in CO2 emissions, we do not quantify the additionality of the BC target (see box below on BC for more details).
Black Carbon and Mexico’s NDC
Mexico’s NDC includes a target to reduce black carbon (BC) emissions, which has substantial co-benefits for human health. However, reductions in black carbon are generally not additional to reductions in CO2 emissions, because large fractions of black-carbon emissions stem from the same emission sources as CO2. Emission reduction policies therefore often reduce CO2 and black carbon simultaneously, and this is already included in calculations of the emissions reductions in greenhouse gases required to hold warming well below 2°C globally, such as the “emissions gap” and “fair share” reductions (see next section on Fair Share).
From the climate perspective, however, there is no established scientific method to compare the climate benefits of black-carbon reductions to those of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. In the AR5, the IPCC does not provide calculations of GWP for BC comparable to those provided for greenhouse gases, merely noting the inherent difficulties in doing so and limiting itself to just displaying estimates from the pre-AR5 literature. While Mexico’s NDC specify a metric to compare BC with CO2 (GWP of 900), this is based on a single literature source (pre-dating IPCC AR5), which itself notes very large uncertainties of around 100%.
The long-term target from Mexico’s Mid-century Strategy (MCS) is not considered as a “net zero target” and thus, is not included in our assessment. In previous analyses we had taken this target directly form the documents, which provides absolute numbers for expected emissions in 2050. As the MCS does not provide further details on the LULUCF share to the target, we assumed 2050 LULUCF emissions will range between the emissions levels in 2030 for "baseline" and "unconditional target" scenarios from the 2016 NDC.
We had converted the reported numbers from AR5 to AR4 GWPs using an average conversion based on the inventory’s granular information on all gases and sectors per year.
Policies and action
As a starting point for the current policy projections, we took the baseline scenario as reported in the NDC document and the 6th National Communication to the UNFCCC (Government of Mexico, 2015; SEMARNAT, 2019a). Although projected emissions under this baseline are quite high, we decided to use this time series based on the alarming fact that as of 2013, historical emissions as reported in Mexico’s inventory are higher than those under the NDC baseline. We converted these numbers to AR4 GWPs using an average conversion factor from AR5 to AR4 based on the inventory’s granular information on all gases and sectors per year. For the purpose of our calculations, we harmonised the NDC baseline scenario to the historical emissions pathway to obtain a continuous line until 2030.
We also estimated a lower end of the range through sector-by-sector approach. For the energy sector we assume a correlation between emissions and GDP, and thus apply economic growth forecasts from the IMF until 2027 and a trend thereafter until 2030. For industry, agriculture and waste sectors, we use the trend between 2009 and 2019 (before the COVID’19 pandemic) to project emissions until 2030.
The 6th National Communication provides a disaggregation of the reference scenario at the sectoral level, as well as the expected mitigation impact of major current policies for electricity, transport and buildings:
- Policies included for transport sector: actions included in the Clean Transport Program (namely Training in driving, fuel efficient technologies, fleet renovation)
- Policies included for building sector: policies aiming to reduce fuel and energy use in both commercial and residential buildings
Based on current developments and the government’s roll back of policies that were put in place to support the clean energy targets (e.g. administration’s decision to modernize fossil fuel electricity generation, cancellation of the renewable energy auctions), we estimated a range based on the likelihood of implementation of the potential in the latest electricity planning (PRODESEN 2020-2034) (Centro Nacional de Control de Energía, 2021). The upper end assumes that Mexico will not achieve its clean electricity targets and the related mitigation potential; while the lower end assumes that they will, the policy’s mitigation impact is taken as reported in the 6th National Communication (SEMARNAT, 2019a). In both cases, we assumed the mitigation potential of transport and buildings policies would be achieved.
Emissions mitigation potential from clean energy under Objective 2 are specified in the PECC 2021 until 2034 are inconsistent with other government publications (and refer to planning documents from 2018), and thus not included in our calculations.
We converted the expected mitigation impact to AR4 GWPs using the average historical conversion factor from AR5 to AR4. We then deducted these expected mitigation impacts from the respective sectoral reference scenarios for these three sectors and assumed no change compared to the baseline for waste, agriculture, industry and oil & gas sectors.
Global Warming Potentials values
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).
We estimate that the net effect of black carbon (BC) emission reductions additional to those resulting as a co-benefit from reductions in CO2 to be negligible. There is no established scientific method to compare the climate benefits of BC reductions to those of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. The IPCC has not provided such estimates even in its most recent Fifth Assessment Report. Although Mexico’s NDC does specify a metric to compare with CO2 (GWP of 900), we consider this value to be unsuitable for use in the policy context and the single literature source (Bond et al., 2013) to which the NDC refers, states:
- "… the summed climate forcing of all species for a source category emitting in a particular region (or season) may have a different magnitude than the global average, or even a different sign.”
- “The 100-year global-warming-potential (GWP) value for black carbon is 900 (120 to 1800 range) with all forcing mechanisms included. The large range derives from the uncertainties in the climate forcing for black carbon effects.”
- “Co-emission effects … are not captured by BC metrics presented here…”
- “These and other differences raise questions about the appropriateness of using a single metric to compare black carbon and greenhouse gases.”
The paper in reference estimates that the combined global warming effect of black carbon and its co-emitted species is slightly negative and notes that the “reduction of aerosol concentrations by mitigating BC-rich source categories would be accompanied by small to no changes in short-term climate forcing.”
Note: this is not the case for certain other air pollutants (e.g. reductions in sulphate aerosols would lead to warming), so while measures to reduce BC do not generally help to combat climate change, these are highly welcomed as a climate-neutral measure to improve local air quality, thereby reducing health impacts.