Mexico

The Mexican government has committed to an absolute unconditional net emissions range of 364-404 MtCO₂e (equivalent to a 31-19% reduction below 2023 levels excluding LULUCF) and a conditional target of 332-363 MtCO₂e by 2035 (equivalent to a 36-25% reduction below 2023 levels excluding LULUCF) contingent on international finance. Neither of these targets aligns with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

While not consistent with 1.5°C pathways, the new targets narrow the gap compared to the previous targets from the 2030 NDC. As these new 2035 targets are more ambitious than the 2030 targets, this does signal a positive shift towards stronger climate ambition. However, ambitious implementation and action must follow.

Under current policies, Mexico’s projected emissions continue to steeply rise out to 2035, driven by the energy sector. To achieve its 2035 NDC targets, Mexico would need to ensure that its emissions peak and rapidly decline. Mexico has an opportunity to align its policies with the ambitious targets set under this 2035 NDC. The country has significant potential for the implementation of renewables that would help reduce fossil fuel dependencies and achieve energy security.