Mexico

Mexico has submitted its 2035 NDC ahead of COP30. A detailed analysis of this target is available here.

Mexico updated its 2030 NDC in November 2022 at COP27, setting an unconditional target to reduce total GHG emissions by up to 35% below BAU in 2030 (Gobierno de México, 2022c). Of this, 30% would be achieved with domestic resources and an additional 5% through already-agreed international cooperation and finance for clean energy development – a category that includes certain fossil gas-fired power plants under Mexican law (Gobierno de México, 2025g). The NDC also introduces a conditional 40% reduction target below BAU in 2030, contingent on further international support.

To assess the targets excluding LULUCF, we estimate a range using the BAU’s stated emissions and sinks for the lower bound and the historical value for 2013 for the upper bound. For the unconditional target, we only consider the 30% to be achieved with own resources. For further details, please see the Assumptions section.

Based on these assumptions, we estimate that Mexico’s unconditional 2030 NDC target corresponds to 803 – 874 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF (equivalent to a 9-19% increase from 2023 levels), and its conditional target to 704 - 775 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF (equivalent to between a 4% reduction and a 5 % increase from 2023 levels). For further details, please see the Assumptions section.

We rate Mexico’s proposed 2030 unconditional NDC target as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action, and its conditional NDC target as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways.

During COP29, Mexico announced a net zero target for 2050 (Gobierno de México, 2024d). This target is mentioned in the 2025 update of the National Strategy on Climate Change (Gobierno de México, 2025b) - the document that provides long-term vision for the country on climate change mitigation and adaptation for the next 10, 20, and 40 years – but as of January 2026, Mexico has not submitted an updated Long-Term Strategy (LTS) aligned with its new commitment to the UNFCCC. We estimate that Mexico’s net zero target corresponds to 361 - 431 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF (equivalent to a 41-51% reduction below 2023 levels). For further details, please see the Assumptions section.

Mexico submitted its 2035 NDC in November 2025, during COP30. The Mexican government has committed to an absolute unconditional net emissions range of 364-404 MtCO₂e and a conditional target of 332-363 MtCO₂e (both including LULUCF) by 2035, contingent on international finance (Gobierno de México, 2025a).

Since Mexico’s 2035 NDC targets are defined as net emissions including LULUCF, we estimated the LULUCF contribution in 2035 to derive the targets excluding this sector. We applied two approaches: projecting LULUCF emissions and sinks to 2035 using recent national inventory trends (from 2014 onwards), and applying the BAU LULUCF trajectory from the 2030 NDC, adjusted to reflect the assumed minimum sink of 200 MtCO₂ set in the 2035 NDC for 2030 and extended to 2035. Each method produces a separate estimate of the LULUCF sink; subtracting these from the total net target results in a range for the 2035 NDC targets excluding LULUCF. For further details, please see the Assumptions section.

We estimate Mexico’s unconditional 2035 NDC target corresponds to 506 – 592 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF (equivalent to a 31-16% reduction below 2023 levels) and a conditional target of 474 – 551 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF (equivalent to a 36-25% reduction below 2023 levels excluding LULUCF).

Mexico updated its 2030 NDC in 2022, where it committed to unconditionally reduce its emissions by up to 35% below a BAU baseline scenario by 2030 (30% with its own resources and an additional 5% with agreed international support and cooperation for ‘clean energies’) and up to 40% below the same baseline, conditional on receiving financial, technical and capacity building support (Gobierno de México, 2022c).

While at first glance this update may be seen as an improvement from the 2016 version (Gobierno de México, 2015) and the 2020 version (where Mexico committed to an unconditional 22% reduction below BAU in 2030 and a 36% reduction conditional on international support) (Gobierno de México, 2020a), we find the new targets to be less ambitious than 2016, when estimating the absolute emissions level without the contribution of the forestry sector in 2030.

Mexico’s 2020 update was revoked by a judge in 2021 on the grounds that it was less ambitious and in breach of the Paris Agreement and Mexican law (Poder Judicial de la Federación, 2021). Since the 2020 update is no longer valid in the Mexican context, we compare the 2030 NDC targets – updated in 2022 – to the original 2016 version.

The 2022 updated targets result in a higher absolute emissions level than the 2016 targets, mainly for two reasons:

1. The BAU baseline has been revised upwards.
2. The potential contribution of sinks from LULUCF has substantially increased. In the 2016 NDC, the sink was estimated as 14 MtCO₂ in 2030 as part of the target, while the baseline now states a sink of 158 MtCO₂. Given the land-use sector is “central” to the NDC, it can be expected this would further increase under a scenario with policies. The updated NDC does not provide a clear number for the sinks under a target pathway. In comparison, the 2016 version included a sectoral breakdown of the expected contributions to achieve the target.

The 2022 update explicitly removes the previous target to peak emissions in 2026. The reason given is that it was never binding as it was included under the ‘intended Nationally Determined Contribution’ and that parties agreed afterwards that developing countries would aim to peak as early as possible without specifying the year. It also mentions the COVID-19 pandemic, and that determining an emissions trend will require further analysis to be undertaken during the update of the National Strategy on Climate Change, which has been published in 2025 - not including a target year to peak emissions, but with the new 2035 NDC targets setting lower emission levels than current emissions.

In 2020 Mexico had submitted a 2030 NDC update with the same percentage reductions below BAU as the original 2016 version, but with a higher BAU baseline and less transparency on the sectoral contributions to the target (Gobierno de México, 2020a). Back then, we had estimated the absolute emissions level of the targets as being higher than the original 2016 version, making the targets less ambitious.

In 2021, after civil society won an ‘amparo’ lawsuit (under the constitution) against the lack of ambition of Mexico’s December 2020 updated 2030 NDC, a judge reinstated Mexico’s original 2016 climate targets version. The reason for this decision was that Mexico’s updated climate commitments, albeit unchanged in terms of reduction percentages, resulted in a higher emissions level due to an upward revision of the baseline. It also was less transparent than the original and excluded the target of peak emissions in 2026. The court also reinstated the 2050 goal from Mexico’s Mid-Century Strategy.

Like previous submissions, the 2030 NDC updated in 2022, also includes targets to reduce black carbon by 51% unconditionally below BAU in 2030 and up to 70% conditional on international support in the same year. It also presents an adaptation component.

For further details on the calculations, please see the Assumptions section.

Comparison table

*In 2025, we recalculated the absolute emissions level of the 2030 NDC due to an update in the global warming potential (GWP) values used by the Climate Action Tracker, shifting from AR4 to AR5. This results in higher estimated emissions for both the unconditional and conditional targets. The overall rating is not affected by this change.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 05.07.2022 Mexico Assessment – court ruling to revoke 2020 NDC update and reinstate 2016 NDC
• 30.12.2020 Mexico’s updated NDC lowers its climate ambition and transparency, contrary to Paris Agreement rules

The CAT rates both Mexico’s conditional 2030 NDC target against modelled domestic pathways and its unconditional 2030 NDC target against fair share as “Highly insufficient”. Mexico has put forward two targets in its NDC. One that will be achieved using its own resources and one that requires international support. For the rating we compare the conditional target to modelled domestic pathways and its unconditional target to its fair share contribution.

We rate Mexico’s conditional 2030 reduction target levels as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled emissions pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Mexico’s conditional NDC target in 2030 is not at all consistent with 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Mexico’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Our methods do not provide a clear answer to the question whether Mexico should receive international climate finance. A comparison of the two CAT rating frameworks – Mexico’s fair share of global emissions and its emission pathways based on global least-cost mitigation – shows that a provision of a small amount of international support is consistent with literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals. However, we consider it unlikely that Mexico is in a position to provide international support since it is currently a beneficiary of international climate finance (Gobierno de México, 2024a).

We rate Mexico’s 2030 unconditional NDC target as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Mexico’s unconditional NDC target is not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Mexico’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

The rating has changed from “Critically Insufficient” to “Highly Insufficient” compared to the previous assessment. This rating change is not because of an updated NDC target, but rather due to a literature update to our fair share ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore excludes studies based on cost-effectiveness. This update also includes additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here .

Mexico announced during COP29 that it plans to reach net zero emissions by 2050. We estimate this target to lead to emissions levels of between 361-431 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, by 2050. See the Assumptions section for more details.

We evaluate the net zero target as “Target information incomplete”. Mexico reaffirmed its net zero commitment in its 2035 NDC and in the 2025 National Strategy on Climate Change (in Spanish: Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático) update (Gobierno de México, 2025b). The strategy should be revised every ten years for mitigation goals and every six years for adaptation. The updated version sets the guiding principles for policy efforts in different sectors towards achieving the Mexican 2030 NDC (Gobierno de México, 2025a) and its announced 2050 net zero target (Gobierno de México, 2024d).

As of January 2026, Mexico has not submitted an updated Long-Term Strategy (LTS) aligned with its new commitment to the UNFCCC, nor has the target been enshrined into law. Mexico’s 2016 Mid-Century Strategy (MCS), while still formally submitted as its Long-Term Strategy (LTS), is not considered.

The CAT currently does not evaluate Mexico’s net zero target given the preliminary nature and a lack of more detailed information. The CAT will do so once the government communicates further information.

See the Net Zero section for further information.