Nepal

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

Historical emissions

The historical dataset between 1990 and 2000 is based on Nepal’s Second National Communication (Government of Nepal, 2014). Emissions levels for 2011 were taken from Nepal’s GHG inventory for the Third National Communication (Tribhuvan University, 2019). Values between 2000 and 2011 were interpolated. Finally, an independent study carried out to estimate Nepal’s energy-related emission inventory (NEEMI) for the period 2011–2016 was used to complement the data series until 2016. For non-energy related emissions, we extended the trend of development of emissions in the past five years, based on the National Communication scenarios (Sadavarte, P., 2019).

We took the 1994 and 2000 LULUCF values from the GHG emissions profiles for Non-Annex I countries (UNFCCC, 2015); and the 2011 LULUCF value from Nepal’s GHG inventory for the Third National Communication (Tribhuvan University, 2019).

NDC and other targets

Nepal’s NDC consists of many individual actions with different target years and lacks detail for some of them (see Pledges and targets). The NDC does not include an economy-wide GHG reduction target, and as consequence we did not quantify or rate Nepal’s NDC.

Current policy projections

The current policy scenario is based on projections from Nepal’s Second National Communication for energy, industry, agriculture and waste sectors (Government of Nepal, 2014). The National Communication sketches three scenarios (Business-As-Usual (BAU); medium growth (MG); high growth (HG)) of which two –BAU and medium growth– were used to form a range. The high growth scenario was disregarded since it assumes an annual GDP growth rate of 10% which is not in line with projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Nepal and seems unrealistic given an average GDP growth rate of approximately 4% in the period between 2006 and 2015 GDP (IMF, 2018). The National Communication’s BAU scenario assumes 4.63% GDP growth per year, and the medium growth scenario assumes 5% per year. Both scenarios’ projections (BAU and medium growth) for 2030 were harmonised to the latest available historical data point (2016). Given that the NEEMI study used to extend the historical data series until 2016 reports higher emission levels between 2011-2016, our emissions level for 2030 is higher than the one reported in Nepal’s Second National Communication.

COVID-19 impact

We applied a novel method to estimate the COVID-19 related dip in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and its impact until 2030. The uncertainty surrounding the severity and length of the pandemic creates a new level of uncertainty for current and future emissions. We first updated the current policy projections as described in the section above and distilled the emission intensity (GHG emissions/GDP) from this pre-pandemic scenario taking the GDP growth rates until 2030 as reported in Nepal’s Second National Communication. We then replaced those GDP growth rates with the most recent GDP projections that take into account the effect of the pandemic in the economy.

We took into account projections from the World Bank, which expect a 1.8% GDP growth in 2020 and 2.1% in 2021; the most recent GDP projections from the IMF, expecting no GDP growth during 2020 and a 2.5% growth rate in 2021; and projections from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), based on Central Bureau of Statistics, which expect a 2.3% GDP growth in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021. We used all these to create the emissions range of current policy projections (ADB, 2020; IIASA, 2018; IMF, 2018; World Bank, 2020a). To complete the time series for GDP projections until 2030, we use the pre-COVID-19 growth rates as reported in the Second National Communication for the two scenarios we initially looked at (BAU and medium growth). While the ADB reported its GDP projections in fiscal years, emissions are normally reported on calendar years. Given the limited data available, we assumed the GDP projections would apply to the corresponding calendar year.

Global Warming Potential values

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).

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