Nepal

Overall rating
Almost Sufficient

Policies and action
against fair share

1.5°C compatible
< 1.5°C World

Conditional NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Critically insufficient
4°C+ World

Unconditional NDC target
against fair share

1.5°C compatible
< 1.5°C World
Climate finance
Not applicable
Net zero target

year

2045

Comprehensiveness rated as

Average
Land use & forestry

historically considered both a

Source & Sink

Target Overview

In its latest NDC, Nepal has set an activity-based target for both its unconditional and conditional targets. The unconditional target covers the energy sector by adding 5 GW of clean energy. However, given the NDC has no unconditional emissions reduction target, the CAT could not quantify this unconditional target, and has therefore had to use Nepal’s current policy projections as its unconditional target. The CAT rates this as “1.5°C compatible” compared to Nepal's fair share.

According to CAT calculations, the new conditional NDC would lead to emission levels between 59–64 MtCO2e in 2030, depending on the interpretation of the sectoral targets and the overlaps with the energy sector targets. The CAT rates this as “Critically insufficient” against modelled domestic pathways.

NEPAL - Main climate targets
2030 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC Nepal has set an unconditional target of 5000 MW for clean energy generation by 2030, but has no overall target.
Absolute emissions level in 2030
excl. LULUCF
Nepal’s latest NDC has no clear quantification of its unconditional target (only mentioned number of target and no percentage); the current policy projection (CPP) is rated against fair share for the unconditional target
Status Submitted on December 2020
2030 conditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC The NDC covers several sectors with target:

• Energy sector: expanding clean energy from wind, solar, bioenergy and water 5-10%, from total 15,000 MW.
• Transport sector: increasing e-vehicle sales 90% from private passenger for two-wheelers and 60% from all four-wheelers public passenger vehicle.
• Residential sector: ensuring 25% using electric stoves for primary cooking and 700 biogas plants (total of household and large scale).
• Waste sector: 280 million litters/day of wastewater and 60,000 cubic meters/year of fecal sludge will be managed before released.
Absolute emissions level in 2030
excl. LULUCF
59-64 MtCO2e
[68-81% above 2010]
Status Submitted on December 2020
Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target in NDC Achieve carbon neutrality before or by 2045
Absolute emissions level in 2045
excl. LULUCF
N/A*
Status Submitted on 31 October 2021

*For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate, see the Assumptions tab.

On December 8, 2020 Nepal submitted its second NDC to the UNFCCC. This NDC represents a step forward from its predecessor, as it now contains quantitative activity-based and policy targets in key sectors and, for the first time, some of the energy-related targets are listed as an unconditional commitment.

Nepal should further enhance transparency of its NDC targets and provide an absolute emissions reduction target for all sectors. The NDC provided limited details on some of the sectoral target, so it was not possible to estimate the impact of all of them. This means the total reduction under the conditional NDC could potentially be higher than our estimates. Due to the absence of an absolute emissions reduction target for the unconditional target, the CAT could not quantify it, so we use Nepal’s current policy projections as its unconditional target.

NEPAL
History of NDC updates
First NDC (2016) NDC Update (2020)
1.5°C compatible N/A
Stronger target N/A
Fixed/ absolute target


NEPAL First NDC (2016) NDC update (2020)
Formulation of target in NDC Activity-based targets and policy targets in key sectors Unconditional target (not quantifiable):
Increasing 5 GW of clean energy.

Conditional target:
Energy sector: expanding clean energy from mini and micro-hydro power, solar, wind and bio-energy 5-10%, from total 15 GW.


Transport sector: increasing e-vehicle sales 90% from private passenger for two-wheelers and 60% from all four-wheelers public passenger vehicle.


Residential sector: ensuring 25% using electric stoves for primary cooking and 700 biogas plants (total of household and large scale).
Absolute emissions level
excl. LULUCF
Not specified Unconditional target:
Not quantifiable, the CAT uses Nepal's Policies and action

Conditional target:
59 – 64 MtCO2e by 2030
Emissions compared to 2010
excl. LULUCF
Not specified Unconditional target:
Not quantifiable, the CAT uses Nepal's Policies and action

Conditional target:
68 – 81% above 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating Overall rating*:
No rating
Unconditional NDC target against fair share**:
1.5°C compatible

Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways:
Critically insufficient
Sector coverage Not specified Economy wide
Separate target for LULUCF Yes, pledged to maintain 40% of total area of the country under forest Yes, pledged to increase forest cover to 45% by 2030
Gas coverage Not specified CO2, CH4, N2O
Target type Activity-based targets and policy targets in key sectors Activity-based targets and emissions reduction potential in sectors target

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.
**The CAT has not quantified this target but uses emissions levels from Nepal’s Policies and action.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

CAT rating of targets

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Nepal will need support to achieve those needed reductions with its borders.

Nepal has put forward two targets in its NDC. One that it will achieving using its own resources and one that requires international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its border defined by a modelled domestic pathway. In the case of Nepal, the CAT could not quantify the unconditional target because an absolute emissions reduction target was not provided, so we use Nepal’s current policy projections as its unconditional target.

Conditional NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Critically insufficient

Nepal’s current “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that its conditional 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, when compared to modelled domestic pathways. If all countries were to follow Nepal’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We haven’t included all sectoral measures in our assessment of Nepal’s conditional target because the NDC provided limited details on some of the sectoral target, so it was not possible to estimate the impact of all of them. Nepal is encouraged to provide further information on the quantification of its NDC and to exceed this target with international support.

Unconditional NDC target
against fair share

1.5°C compatible

Given the NDC has no unconditional emissions reduction target, the CAT therefore had to use Nepal’s current policy projections as its unconditional target. Our current policy projection and the conditional target both fall within the 1.5°C range. The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Nepal’s fair share target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Nepal’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

We evaluate the net zero target as: Average.

Nepal announced its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality before, or by, 2045, in October 2021. The long-term strategy sets out targets that cover all sectors of the economy – energy, industry process, agriculture, forestry and land use, and waste. However, the LTS only covers CO2 emissions despite non-CO2 emissions accounting for 70% of Nepal total emission (excl. LULUCF) in 2021 (Gütschow, Günther and Pflüger, 2022) .

The LTS gives two emission reduction scenarios. The first scenario, With Existing Measures (WEM), takes into account the plans and policies implemented and adopted up to 2020, as well as potential adoption in 2030 and 2050. The WEM scenario does not target carbon neutrality, while the With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario does. The WAM scenario includes more ambitious targets; conditional on international support and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 (Government of Nepal, 2021).

In the WEM scenario, net CO2 emissions will be reduced by 30 MtCO2e in 2030 and 50 MtCO2e in 2050 [GWP AR5]. In WAM scenario, Nepal’s net CO2 emissions are projected to be negative from 2020 to 2030 due to a LULUCF carbon sink, then remain around ‘zero’ throughout 2035 to 2045 (Government of Nepal, 2021).

The LTS outlines investment in clean energy as the main strategy for emission reductions. It also emphasises the significant role of the LULUCF sector in supporting ‘net negative carbon emissions by 2050’. Both scenarios cover energy efficiency improvement, fuel switching and a strong target for electrification across most sectors (Government of Nepal, 2021).

For the full analysis click here

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