Nigeria

Overall rating
Almost Sufficient
Policies & action
1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible
< 1.5°C World
Internationally supported target
Almost Sufficient
< 2°C World
Fair share target
1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible
< 1.5°C World
Climate finance
Not applicable
Net zero target

year

2050-2070

Comprehensiveness rated as

Average
Land use & forestry
Not significant

Summary

We evaluate the net zero target as: Average

In November 2021, Nigeria passed the Climate Change Act that seeks to achieve low greenhouse gas emission, and green and sustainable growth by providing the framework to set a target to reach net zero between 2050 and 2070 (Okereke & Onuigbo, 2021). The Act includes provisions to adopt National Climate Change Action Plans in five-year cycles. The Action Plans, produced by the National Council on Climate Change established by the Act, are meant to ensure national emissions are consistent with a carbon budget. The carbon budgets are to be set by the federal ministries responsible for the environment and national planning and periodically reviewed.

It is unclear if the government is on track to achieve the initial deadlines set in the Act. Under the Act, the first Action Plan and the pilot carbon budget should be published by November 2022; however, the Director General of the National Council on Climate Change, who is expected to drive implementation of the Act, was only appointed in July 2022.

At COP26, President Buhari further committed to net zero emissions by 2060, which would be in line with the Climate Change Act (Lo, 2021). Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan, released in August 2022, was developed to serve as the pathway towards achieving the 2060 net zero target. Nigeria has also launched a long-term vision to 2050, which is expected to inform the development of their Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (Akinola, 2021).

As the Act only sets the framework for adopting a net zero GHG target between 2050 and 2070, the final net zero target could improve on several elements as discussed below. In particular, the target should clarify emissions coverage and the role of carbon removals in achieving the target.

Nigeria
Comprehensiveness of net zero target design
Average
Scope
Target year: 2050-2070
Emissions coverage

Target covers emissions / sectors partially (above 95% coverage)

International aviation and shipping

The target excludes both international aviation and shipping

Reductions or removals outside of own borders

Plans to reach net zero through domestic actions and no removals outside borders

Architecture
Legal Status

Net zero target in proposed legislation or in a policy document

Separate reduction & removal targets

No separate emission reduction and removal targets

Review Process

Legally binding process to review the net zero target

Transparency
Carbon dioxide removal

No transparent assumptions on carbon dioxide removals

Comprehensive planning

Some information on the anticipated pathway or measures for achieving net zero is available, but with limited detail.

Clarity on fairness of target

Country makes no reference to fairness or equity in the context of its net zero target

Ten key elements

Scope

  • Target yearNigeria’s Climate Change Act seeks to achieve low greenhouse gas emission, and green and sustainable growth by providing the framework to set a net zero GHG target between 2050 and 2070. Nigeria’s NDC update mentions aiming to reach net zero as early as possible in the second half of the century. At COP26, President Buhari committed to achieving net zero by 2060, also included in Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (Lo, 2021). We take Nigeria’s target year to be 2050-2070 as the Act is enshrined into law.
  • Emissions coverage – The target covers all Kyoto gases except NF3 (Art. 35 of the Act). No data is available for the level of NF3 emissions, but other F-gases represent less than half a percent of Nigeria’s emissions. The Act does not specify sectoral emissions coverage, but as the corresponding carbon budget should be set ‘for Nigeria’, we assume the target is economy-wide.
  • International aviation and shipping – The Act does not include any information on international aviation and shipping.
  • Reductions or removals outside of own borders – The Act applies to entities within the territorial boundaries of Nigeria and the environment ministry is required to set a carbon budget for Nigeria. We interpret these provisions to mean that Nigeria’s target is focused on cutting emissions within its own borders.

Target architecture

  • Legal status – In November 2021, Nigeria passed the Climate Change Act, which seeks to achieve low greenhouse gas emission green and sustainable growth by providing a framework to set a net zero GHG target between 2050 and 2070. The carbon budget and Action Plan, required within a year of the adoption of the Act, have not yet been released. Nigeria has not submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC as of September 2022, though it has launched its Long-Term Vision meant to inform the development of its Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (Akinola, 2021).
  • Separate reduction & removal targets – Nigeria has not provided any information on whether it will establish separate emission reduction and removal targets.
  • Review process – Nigeria’s Climate Change Act includes detailed provisions for periodically revising its carbon budget as well as its Action Plan. The federal ministries responsible for environment and for national planning are required to present a carbon budget and determine the budgetary period one year after the Act was signed into law, by November 2022. A new carbon budget must then be produced one year before the end of the current carbon budget cycle. The Secretariat of the National Council on Climate Change must also produce an Action Plan to ensure national emissions are consistent with the carbon budget every five years. The Action Plan must include a carbon budget in line with the five-year cycle and annual carbon budgets for each year in the cycle.
    The Secretariat must also regularly report to the National Assembly on the state of implementation of the Plan. The Act also establishes obligations on public and private entities to achieve targets and consequences for failing to do so.
    The Act does not, however, specify a process for reviewing the net zero target itself.

Transparency

  • Carbon dioxide removalNigeria’s Climate Change Act does not provide any information on its intention to communicate transparent assumptions on domestic carbon dioxide removals to meet its net zero target. The Act, however, includes text on the promotion of nature-based solutions, the establishment of a REDD+ Registry and development of natural capital accounts to be used by government bodies in policy and action plan formulation in line with the carbon budget.
  • Comprehensive planning – Under the Act, the federal ministries responsible for environment and for national planning are required to set a 1.5°C consistent carbon budget. Nigeria is also working on developing its long-term strategy (LTS). The Act includes provisions to develop National Climate Change Action Plans every five years to be ratified by the Federal Executive Council that will be overseen by the National Council on Climate Change. The Action Plans aim to ensure national emissions are consistent with the carbon budget and should include annual carbon budgets for each year in the five-year cycle.
    Nigeria also released its Energy Transition Plan in August 2022. The plan is expected to serve as Nigeria’s pathway to achieve its 2060 net zero target.
  • Clarity on fairness of target – The Act does not include any information pertaining to the fairness of Nigeria’s target.

Good practice

The Climate Action Tracker has defined the following good practice for all ten key elements of net zero targets. Countries can refer to this good practice to design or enhance their net zero targets.

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