Nigeria

Overall rating
Almost Sufficient

Policies and action
against fair share

1.5°C compatible
< 1.5°C World

Conditional NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Almost Sufficient
< 2°C World

Unconditional NDC target
against fair share

1.5°C compatible
< 1.5°C World
Climate finance
Not applicable
Net zero target

year

2050-2070

Comprehensiveness rated as

Average
Land use & forestry
Not significant

Target Overview

Nigeria submitted its updated NDC in July 2021 (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2021). The update included a substantially revised business-as-usual (BAU) projection for 2030, half of what was projected in Nigeria’s first NDC submission.

Nigeria is committed to reducing its emissions by 20% below BAU by 2030 (incl. LULUCF) unconditionally and will reduce its emissions by up to 47% below BAU by 2030, conditional on international support.

The CAT estimates that the unconditional target equates to an emissions level of 304-331 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) in 2030 (17-27% above 2010 levels) and the conditional target equates to 201-264 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) in 2030 (1% above to 23% below 2010 levels). There is a high degree of uncertainty in these estimates due to a lack of information on projected land sector emissions in 2030, and the extent to which this sector contributes to the NDC target. Due to this uncertainty, we estimate the targets excluding LULUCF using a range of assumptions on the contribution from the land sector (see Assumptions tab for more details).

NIGERIA - Main climate targets
2030 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC 20% below BAU by 2030
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF 304-331 MtCO2e
[17-27% above 2010]
Status Submitted on 30 July 2021
2030 conditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC 47% below BAU by 2030
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF 201-264 MtCO2e
[1% above to 23% below 2010]
Status Submitted on 30 July 2021
Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target Nigeria has committed to set a net zero GHG target in the range of 2050 and 2070
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF N/A*
Status Included in the Climate Change Act passed in November 2021

*For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate, see the Assumptions tab.

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Nigeria will need support to achieve those needed reductions with its borders.

Nigeria has put forward two targets in its NDC: one that it will achieve using its own resources and one that requires international support. We rate Nigeria’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution as “1.5°C compatible” and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its border defined by a modelled domestic pathway as “Almost sufficient”.

Conditional NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Almost Sufficient

In its 2021 NDC update, Nigeria committed to reducing emissions by 47% below BAU by 2030, conditional on international support. This is equivalent to an emissions level 1% above to 23% below 2010 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF. While this is a strong conditional target, Nigeria will need to strengthen its policies to make sure it has the enabling conditions in place to meet the target, in addition to receiving international support.

The CAT rates Nigeria’s 2030 conditional target as “Almost sufficient,” a rating that indicates that Nigeria’s conditional NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Nigeria’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Nigeria’s conditional target spans the CAT’s "Almost sufficient" and 1.5°C compatible ratings. The large target range is due to uncertainty around the extent to which Nigeria plans to rely on the land sector in meeting its target. Further clarity from Nigeria on this may result in a 1.5°C compatible target.

Unconditional NDC target
against fair share

1.5°C compatible

In its 2021 NDC update, Nigeria recommitted to unconditionally reducing emissions 20% below BAU by 2030. This is equivalent to an emissions level of 17-27% above 2010 levels (excl. LULUCF) by 2030. The CAT rates Nigeria’s 2030 unconditional target as 1.5°C compatible.

The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Nigeria’s unconditional NDC target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Nigeria’s unconditional NDC target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

The fair share literature for Nigeria is sparse and some equity categories have few data points. As a result, the upper bound of Nigeria’s fair share range is dominated by a handful of studies. This high range is not reflective of the majority of the literature, which indicates more stringent emission reductions. Future equity studies may help to improve the fair share analysis for Nigeria.

In July 2021, Nigeria submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that reiterates its unconditional target of 20% below BAU by 2030 submitted in the 2017 NDC, and increases the conditional target from 45% to 47% below BAU by 2030 (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2021). The update provided revised historical data with a significantly lower BAU; about half the level of the original. The CAT uses these reductions and the revised BAU in its assessment of Nigeria’s NDC.

Nigeria has also expanded the gas coverage of its NDC to include HFCs and proposes to undertake abatement measures in the waste sector, which were not considered in the first NDC.

2017 NDC 2021 NDC update
Formulation of target in NDC Unconditional target:
Unconditionally reduce emissions by 20% below BAU by 2030.

Conditional target:
Conditionally reduce emissions by 45% below BAU with international support.
Unconditional target:
Unconditionally reduce emissions by 20% below BAU by 2030.

Conditional target:
Conditionally reduce emissions by 47% with international support.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF Unconditional target:
398 MtCO2e

Conditional target:
193 MtCO2e
Unconditional target:
304-331 MtCO2

Conditional target:
201-264 MtCO2e
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010 excl. LULUCF Unconditional target:
53% above 2010 emissions by 2030

Conditional target:
26% below 2010 emissions by 2030
Unconditional target:
17-27% above2010 emissions by 2030

Conditional target:
1% above to 23% below 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating Overall rating*:
N/A
Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways:
Almost sufficient

Unconditional NDC target against fair share:
1.5°C compatible
Sector coverage Economy-wide Unchanged
Separate target for LULUCF No Unchanged
Gas coverage CO2, CH4, N2O CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs
Target type Emissions reduction from BAU Unchanged

* The CAT started tracking Nigeria in October 2021 after its first NDC update.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

In November 2021, Nigeria passed the Climate Change Act that seeks to achieve low greenhouse gas emissions, green and sustainable growth by providing the framework to set a target to reach net zero between 2050 and 2070 (Okereke & Onuigbo, 2021). The Act includes provisions to adopt National Climate Change Action Plans in five-year cycles that are meant to ensure national emissions are consistent with a carbon budget (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2021). However, the government has not met the initial deadlines set in the Act.

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.

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