Peru

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Global warming potentials

Previous assessments of the Climate Action Tracker used the global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR). For this assessment we have updated all figures and time series to GWPs from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

Historical emissions

Historical data for 1994 was obtained from UNFCCC GHG Inventory (UNFCCC, 2015) and data for 2000, 2010 and 2012 from Peru’s Third National Communication (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016), 1990 emissions are based on figures from IEA, EDGAR and USEPA (European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), 2013; IEA, 2014; US EPA, 2012). Trends from historical data estimates by the SEEG were applied to UNFCCC data for the years 2013–2014 (SEEG, 2018).

Current policy projections

The current policy projections reflect policies implemented according to the Third National Communication (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016). Their emission reduction potential compared to BAU is outlined in the technical background document of the NDC (Government of Peru, 2015a). The minimum range of the current policies projections shows the full mitigation potential of these policies. The maximum range of the current policies projections is equal to the BAU. Policies implemented according to the Third National Communication, for which no emission reduction potentials are available, are not considered.

Pledges and targets

The pledge for 2030 is based on the NDC and the technical background document of the NDC (Government of Peru, 2015a, 2015b)(Government of Peru, 2015b; Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2015). The pledge covers CO2, N2O and CH4. The contribution of other GHGs is most likely small, so including only the three main gases introduces only a very small error.

The assessment of Peru’s NDC (Government of Peru, 2015b) considers the mitigation split presented in the technical background document of NDC (Government of Peru, 2015a). For the unconditional target, 77% of the 20% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained from measures in the LULUCF sector (particularly to increase enabling conditions for forest management). For the conditional target, 71% of the 30% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained in the LULUCF sector.