Peru

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Historical emissions

Historical data between 1990 and 2000 was taken from a recently published report on “Fossil CO₂ and GHG emissions of all world countries” (EDGAR, 2019). This data was then harmonised to Peru’s Third National Communication which provides updated emission estimates for the period 2000-2012 (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016). Trends from historical emissions estimated by the SEEG were also used to include 2013 and 2014 data point in the time series (SEEG, 2019).

Pledge

The pledge for 2030 is based on the NDC and the technical background document of the NDC (Government of Peru, 2015c, 2015a). The pledge covers CO₂, N₂O and CH₄. The contribution of other GHGs is most likely small, so including only the three main gases introduces a very small error.

The assessment of Peru’s NDC considers the mitigation split presented in the recently published road map for NDC implementation. According to the technical background document of the NDC, for the unconditional target, 76% of the 20% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained from measures in the LULUCF sector (particularly to increase enabling conditions for forest management). For the conditional target, 69% of the 30% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained in the LULUCF sector.

Current policy projections

The current policy projections for total energy-related CO₂ emissions are based on the BAU scenario from the 7th edition of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (APEC, 2019). APEC’s BAU scenario runs until 2050 and assumes that electricity generation will grow 69% until 2050 due to rapid economic growth, while electricity capacity will increase by 48%. Peru’s generation mix remains dominated by hydro power and gas-fired generation, with wind and solar power together accounting for 6.7% in 2050. Further, this scenario assumes that Peru becomes a net natural gas importer around 2039 as demand rises rapidly and domestic natural gas production declines with the depletion of the Camisea field.

The APEC scenarios use historical energy and CO₂ data derived or estimated from IEA Energy Balances of non-OECD Countries and CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion. The harmonisation of APEC energy-related CO₂ with historical data from the national inventory results in a decrease of about 15 MtCO₂e/year in 2030.

Non-CO₂ emissions were taken directly from the recently published US EPA “Non-CO₂ GHG emissions” report with data available for the period between 1990 and 2030 (US EPA, 2019).

Other CO₂ emissions were estimated based on their share in the last inventory (2012) and their expected contribution under BAU in 2030 (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016). Data was interpolated linearly for in between years and harmonised with historical data.

Global Warming Potentials

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).