Historical data between 1990 and 2000 was taken from a recently published report on “Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries” (EDGAR, 2019). This data was then harmonised to Peru’s national GHG inventory reports (Infocarbono) which provides updated emission estimates for the period 2000-2014 (Ministry of Environment of Peru, 2020a). Finally, we extended the time series until 2017 using the growth rate as reported in PRIMAP data, excluding LULUCF (Gütschow et al., 2019).
NDC and other targets
The pledge for 2030 is based on the new NDC submission document (Gobierno del Peru, 2020). Peru’s new submission covers emissions from all sectors and six gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6). The previous NDC covered only CO2, CH4 and N2O, for all sectors.
The absolute emissions levels including LULUCF are provided directly in the NDC for the unconditional and conditional targets. To distinguish emissions reductions that are attributable to the LULUCF sector, the CAT assumes that the share of LULUCF mitigation efforts will be the same as it was in the first NDC submission, for both unconditional and conditional targets.
The assessment of Peru’s first NDC considers the mitigation split presented in the roadmap for NDC implementation (Government of Peru, 2018). According to the technical background document of the first NDC, for the unconditional target, 76% of the 20% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained from measures in the LULUCF sector (particularly to increase enabling conditions for forest management). For the conditional target, 69% of the 30% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained in the LULUCF sector.
Current policy projections
The current policy projections for total energy-related CO2 emissions are based on the BAU scenario from the 7th edition of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (APEC, 2019). APEC’s BAU scenario assumes that electricity generation will grow by 69% until 2050 due to rapid economic growth, while electricity capacity will increase by 48%. Peru’s generation mix remains dominated by hydro power and gas-fired generation, with wind and solar power together accounting for 6.7% in 2050.This scenario assumes that Peru becomes a net natural gas importer around 2039 as demand rises rapidly and domestic natural gas production declines with the depletion of the Camisea field.
The APEC scenarios use historical energy and CO2 data derived from IEA Energy Balances of non-OECD countries and CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. The harmonisation of APEC energy-related CO2 with historical data from the national inventory results in about a 15 MtCO2e decrease in emissions projections for 2030.
Non-CO2 emissions were taken directly from the US EPA “Non-CO2 GHG emissions” report with data available for the period between 1990 and 2030 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019).
Other CO2 emissions were estimated based on their share in the last inventory (2014) and their expected contribution under BAU in 2030 (Ministry of Environment of Peru, 2020a). Data was interpolated linearly for in between years and harmonised with historical data.
We applied a novel method to estimate the COVID-19 related dip in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and its impact until 2030. The uncertainty surrounding the severity and length of the pandemic creates a new level of uncertainty for current and future greenhouse gas emissions. We first update the current policy projections based on the most recent developments, before the pandemic. We then distil the emission intensity (GHG emissions/GDP) from this pre-pandemic scenario and applied it to the most recent GDP projections that take into account the effect of the pandemic.
The projections from the government of Peru (Ministry of Economy and Finance), which projects a GDP drop of -12% in 2020, were used to create the upper bound of our current policy projections, while the most recent GDP projections from the IMF expecting a decrease of -13.9% in 2020 and an increase of 7.3% in 2021, were used create the lower bound of our current policy projections. We also considered the most recent GDP projections from the World Bank, but these fell within this range of the above mentioned sources (IMF, 2019; MINEM, 2020; World Bank, 2020).
Global Warming Potentials values
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).