Historical emissions from 1990 to 2019 are taken from PRIMAPhist (Gütschow et al., 2021).
To estimate emissions for 2020 and 2021, we applied the following approach: For the energy and industry sectors, we assumed a directly proportional development of these sectors’ emissions with GDP growth rates from IMF for 2020–2021. For all other sectors, we assumed a continuation of a 5-year trend. We assume that the impact of the pandemic on agriculture, waste and other emissions is minimal and so have extrapolated emissions for 2015–2019 up to 2021 using a 5-year average from historical emissions.
The LULUCF data points until 2016 were taken from the national inventory of emissions (INGEI, 2021).
NDC and other targets
The pledge for 2030 is based on the latest NDC submission document from December 2020 (Gobierno del Peru, 2020). Peru’s submission covers emissions from all sectors and six gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6). The previous NDC covered only CO2, CH4 and N2O, for all sectors.
An absolute emissions level, including LULUCF, is provided directly in the NDC for the unconditional and conditional targets. To distinguish emissions reductions that are attributable to the LULUCF sector, the CAT assumes that the share of LULUCF mitigation efforts will be the same as it was in the first NDC submission, for both unconditional and conditional targets.
The assessment of Peru’s first NDC considers the mitigation split presented in the roadmap for NDC implementation (Government of Peru, 2018). According to the technical background document of the first NDC, for the unconditional target, 76% of the 20% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained from measures in the LULUCF sector. For the conditional target, 69% of the 30% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained in the LULUCF sector.
Current policy projections
The current policy projections for total energy-related CO2 emissions is based on the BAU scenario from the 7th edition of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (APEC, 2019). APEC’s BAU scenario assumes that electricity generation will grow by 69% until 2050 due to rapid economic growth, while electricity capacity will increase by 48%. Peru’s generation mix remains dominated by hydropower and gas-fired generation, with wind and solar power together accounting for 6.7% in 2050. This scenario assumes that Peru becomes a net natural gas importer around 2039 as demand rises rapidly and domestic natural gas production declines with the depletion of the Camisea field.
The APEC scenarios use historical energy and CO2 data derived from IEA Energy Balances of non-OECD countries and CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. The harmonisation of APEC energy-related CO2 with historical data from PRIMAP-hist results in about a 6 MtCO2e decrease in emissions projections for 2030.
Non-CO2 emissions were taken directly from the US EPA “Non-CO2 GHG emissions” report with data available for the period between 1990 and 2030 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019).
Other CO2 emissions were estimated based on their share in the last inventory with data until 2016 (INGEI, 2021) and their expected contribution under BAU in 2030 (Ministry of Environment of Peru, 2020a). Data was interpolated linearly in between years and harmonised with historical data.
Global Warming Potentials values
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).