Historical data between 1990 and 2000 was taken from a recently published report on “Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries” (EDGAR, 2019). This data was then harmonised to Peru’s Third National Communication which provides updated emission estimates for the period 2000-2012 (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016). Trends from historical emissions estimated by the SEEG were also used to include 2013 and 2014 data point in the time series (SEEG, 2019).
The pledge for 2030 is based on the NDC and the technical background document of the NDC (Government of Peru, 2015c, 2015a). The pledge covers CO2, N2O and CH4. The contribution of other GHGs is most likely small, so including only the three main gases introduces a very small error.
The assessment of Peru’s NDC considers the mitigation split presented in the recently published road map for NDC implementation. According to the technical background document of the NDC, for the unconditional target, 76% of the 20% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained from measures in the LULUCF sector (particularly to increase enabling conditions for forest management). For the conditional target, 69% of the 30% emission reductions below BAU will be obtained in the LULUCF sector.
Current policy projections
The current policy projections for total energy-related CO2 emissions are based on the BAU scenario from the 7th edition of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (APEC, 2019). APEC’s BAU scenario runs until 2050 and assumes that electricity generation will grow 69% until 2050 due to rapid economic growth, while electricity capacity will increase by 48%. Peru’s generation mix remains dominated by hydro power and gas-fired generation, with wind and solar power together accounting for 6.7% in 2050. Further, this scenario assumes that Peru becomes a net natural gas importer around 2039 as demand rises rapidly and domestic natural gas production declines with the depletion of the Camisea field.
The APEC scenarios use historical energy and CO2 data derived or estimated from IEA Energy Balances of non-OECD Countries and CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion. The harmonisation of APEC energy-related CO2 with historical data from the national inventory results in a decrease of about 15 MtCO2e/year in 2030.
Non-CO2 emissions were taken directly from the recently published US EPA “Non-CO2 GHG emissions” report with data available for the period between 1990 and 2030 (US EPA, 2019).
Other CO2 emissions were estimated based on their share in the last inventory (2012) and their expected contribution under BAU in 2030 (Ministerio del Ambiente del Perú, 2016). Data was interpolated linearly for in between years and harmonised with historical data.
Global Warming Potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).