Paris Agreement targets
On December 18, 2020 Peru submitted an updated NDC to the UNFCCC that represents progress beyond its previous submission but that is still incompatible with limiting global warming to 2˚C above pre-industrial levels, let alone with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. The regulation of the framework law on climate change (approved at the end of 2019), makes Peru’s Paris Agreement pledge legally binding (SINIA, 2020).
With its new target, Peru commits to limiting emissions to about 123 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030, according to our calculations. This is an improvement compared to its first submission in two ways: it leads to 6% lower emissions levels by 2030 and it has changed its format from a reduction below BAU to an absolute emissions reduction target. Peru’s submission also includes a conditional 2030 target which, according to our calculations, limits emissions to about 107 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030, conditional to access to international climate finance (Gobierno del Peru, 2020). This represents a step forward compared to the first submission, leading to an 8% lower emissions level by 2030 and increasing the target format’s strength from a reduction below BAU to an absolute emissions reduction target. No further details have been provided for the conditional target (e.g., sectoral contributions to the target), making it difficult to assess.
The new NDC provides far fewer details than the previous one in terms of the expected emissions reduction contribution of each sector and, more importantly, of the LULUCF sector (Gobierno del Peru, 2020). In general, Peru should avoid relying on LULUCF sinks to achieve its climate targets as much as possible, given the high chance of carbon loss through deforestation or natural disturbance and eventual competition for land.
Additionally, the new NDC states that Peru will start the process to update its Climate Change National Strategy with a timeframe up to 2050. This update will be based on a Technical Study commissioned to explore pathways to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. Although Peru has stated its intention to reach net zero emissions by 2050, no further details have been communicated so far, which limits our ability to assess the expected contribution of the LULUCF sector to this target.
We estimate the new unconditional NDC target would be reached with the implementation of current policies, without the need for additional policies. This highlights a missed opportunity for Peru to increase its climate action and set realistically achievable but ambitious targets that are aligned with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
The CAT rates Peru’s unconditional target, when rated against its fair share contribution, as “Insufficient”. We rate the conditional target as “Almost sufficient”.
We rate Peru’s internationally supported reduction target (its conditional NDC) “Almost sufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Peru’s conditional NDC in 2030 is not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Morocco’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.
We rate Peru’s 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Peru’s fair share target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Peru’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Peru’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.
Last NDC update
Peru’s updated NDC, submitted in December 2020, slightly strengthens its unconditional 2030 target, rated “Insufficient.” The NDC would lead to an emissions level 6% lower than the previous one, which is not enough to improve its rating. However, the format of the target changed from a reduction below BAU to an absolute emissions reduction and the NDC now includes the goal to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 (Gobierno del Peru, 2020).
We estimate the new target would be reached with the implementation of current policies, without the need for new additional policies. This highlights a missed opportunity for Peru to increase its climate action and set realistically achievable but ambitious targets that are aligned with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
Net zero and other long-term target(s)
Peru’s new NDC states that it will update its Climate Change National Strategy with a timeframe up to 2050. This update will be based on a Technical Study commissioned to explore pathways to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. No further details have been communicated so far, but government officials announced last year that the mid-century carbon neutrality target would be based on four national priorities (Ministry of Environment of Peru, 2020b):
- Transformation of the energy matrix towards renewable energy
- Electrification of the economy (less polluting transport, electromobility)
- Circular economy
- Nature-based solutions (sustainable use of natural resources).
This is a step in the right direction: transitioning to a low-emissions development pathway in compliance with international climate change commitments. However, Peru should avoid relying on LULUCF sinks to achieve its carbon neutrality target, given the high chance of carbon loss through deforestation or natural disturbance and eventual competition for land.
Peru submitted the three pledges in the shape of NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions)1 under the Copenhagen accord in June 2010 (Government of Peru, 2010) which were later refined in Peru’s communication to the UNFCCC in November 2011 in the following way (GFLAC, 2015):
- To reduce net LULUCF emissions to zero by 2021,
- To increase the share of renewables in the energy mix to at least 40% by 2021, and
- To reduce emissions in the waste sector by 7 MtCO2e in 2021 (compared to the year 2000).
It was not possible to quantify the impact of these pledges, as baselines were not available. Nonetheless, the LULUCF pledge could have a substantial impact, as the LULUCF sector currently accounts for just over half of Peru’s total GHG emissions. This pledge was not reflected in the NDC or the measures being considered under it. Recent deforestation trends, as well as the current share of renewables in the energy mix, are at odds with the achievement of these targets by 2021, unless action is scaled up substantially.
1 | Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are voluntary measures undertaken by developing countries to contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The concept was introduced 2007 at the 13th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Bali, Indonesia.