Peru

In its NDC, Peru sets an unconditional target to not exceed an emissions level of 208.8 MtCO₂e in 2030. This target covers all sectors and is reported using Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Second Assessment Report (SAR). The CAT excluded emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) from this target and converted it to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GWP values (see Assumptions section for more details), resulting in a 2030 target of up to 122.7 MtCO₂e in 2030. The CAT rates this target as “Insufficient” compared to Peru’s fair share.

The NDC also includes a conditional target to limit emissions to 179.0 MtCO₂e by 2030. Once again, the CAT excluded LULUCF emissions from the target and converted the SAR GWP values to AR4, resulting in a target of 107.7 MtCO₂e by 2030. This represents a 15 MtCO₂e reduction below the unconditional target (excl. LULUCF). The CAT rates this target as “Insufficient” when compared to what is needed to happen domestically, will international support. Peru’s NDC states an intention to reach net zero emissions by 2050, but it is still in the process of developing its long-term strategy.

On December 18, 2020 Peru submitted an updated NDC to the UNFCCC that represents progress beyond its previous submission but that is still incompatible with limiting global warming to 2˚C above pre-industrial levels, let alone with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. The regulation of the framework law on climate change (approved at the end of 2019), makes Peru’s Paris Agreement pledge legally binding (SINIA, 2020).

With its new target, Peru commits to limiting emissions to about 123 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030, according to our calculations. This is an improvement compared to its first submission in two ways: it leads to 6% lower emissions level by 2030 and it has changed its format from a reduction below BAU to an absolute emissions reduction target.

Peru’s submission also includes a conditional 2030 target which, according to our calculations, limits emissions to about 107 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030, conditional to access to international climate finance (Gobierno del Peru, 2020). This represents a step forward compared to the first submission, leading to an 8% lower emissions level by 2030 and increasing the target format’s strength from a reduction below BAU to an absolute emissions reduction target. No further details have been provided for the conditional target (e.g., sectoral contributions to the target), making it difficult to assess.

The new NDC provides fewer details than the previous one in terms of the expected emissions reduction contribution of each sector and, more importantly, of the LULUCF sector (Gobierno del Peru, 2020). In general, Peru should avoid relying on LULUCF sinks to achieve its climate targets as much as possible, given the high chance of carbon loss through deforestation or natural disturbance and eventual competition for land.

Additionally, the new NDC states that Peru will update its Climate Change National Strategy with a timeframe up to 2050. The updated strategy, its objectives and main indicators are currently undergoing public consultation (as of August, 2022) and the final document is expected to be approved by the government by, at the latest, October 2022 (Ministry of Environment of Peru, 2022a, 2022b).

According to our calculations, the new unconditional NDC target could be reached with the implementation of current policies, without the need for additional, more ambitious policies. This highlights a missed opportunity for Peru to increase its climate action and set realistically achievable but ambitious targets that are aligned with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

The increase in mitigation ambition of the new NDC is not enough to improve Peru’s rating. The CAT rates both Peru’s unconditional and conditional targets, as “Insufficient”.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 18.12.2020 “Peru’s updated NDC with an absolute emissions reduction target for 2030 and a net zero target for 2050"

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Peru will need international support to achieve those needed reductions within its borders.

Peru has put forward two targets in its NDC: one that it will achieve using its own resources (unconditional), and one that requires international support (conditional). We rate the unconditional target against Peru’s fair share contribution (‘Unconditional NDC target against fair share ’) and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its border (‘Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways’).

We rate Peru’s conditional NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Peru’s conditional NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Peru’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

We rate Peru’s 2030 unconditional NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Peru’s unconditional NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. Peru’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Peru’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Peru is in the process of updating its Climate Change National Strategy with a timeframe up to 2050. This update will be based on a Technical Study commissioned to explore pathways to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. No further details have been communicated so far, but in January 2022, the government declared a climate emergency of national interest through its Supreme Decree N° 003-2022-MINAM and indicated that the new Climate Change strategy will be approved by, latest, October 2022 (Ministry of Environment of Peru, 2022a). Before that, government officials announced that the mid-century carbon neutrality target would be based on four national priorities (Ministry of Environment of Peru, 2020b):

• Transformation of the energy matrix towards renewable energy
• Electrification of the economy (less polluting transport, electromobility)
• Circular economy
• Nature-based solutions (sustainable use of natural resources).

This is a step in the right direction: transitioning to a low-emissions development pathway in compliance with international climate change commitments. However, Peru should avoid relying on LULUCF sinks to achieve its carbon neutrality target, given the high chance of carbon loss through deforestation or natural disturbance and eventual competition for land. For the full analysis click here.