Taking into consideration the 24% clean energy target for 2021 and other already implemented policies mentioned in the NDC, we rate the UAE’s NDC “Highly insufficient”. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s climate commitment in 2021 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming would reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means the UAE’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in (I)NDCs. If the CAT were to rate the UAE’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate the UAE “Critically insufficient”, indicating that the UAE’s current policies in 2030 are consistent with a warming of over 4°C. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means the UAE’s current policies are not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. The lower range of the current policies projections is in the "Highly insufficient" category.
In our previous update, UAE’s NDC was rated “Insufficient” and its current policies were fully in the “Highly insufficient” category. This downgrade is due to updated historical data and global warming potentials (see the Assumptions section for further details).
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.