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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

List of references

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America’s Pledge (2018) Fulfilling America’s Pledge: How States, Cities, and Businesses are Leading the United States to a Low-Carbon Future. Available at: https://www.bbhub.io/dotorg/sites/28/2018/09/Fulfilling-Americas-Pledge_Executive-Summary_2018.pdf.
BloombergNEF (2018) New Energy Outlook 2018.
Climate Action Tracker (2016) The ten most important short-term steps to limit warming to 1.5°C. Climate Action Tracker (Climate Analytics, Ecofys, NewClimate Institute). Available at: http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/publications/CAT_10_Steps_for_1o5.pdf.
Climate Action Tracker (2017) Projected effect of Trump Administration policy changes on US emissions. Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/53/CAT_2017-05-15_TrumpAdminEffects_Table.pdf.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2016) Oil and Natural Gas Sector: Emission Standards for New, Reconstructed, and Modified Sources. Washington D.C. Available at: https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2016-06-03/pdf/2016-11971.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2018a) Emission Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing Electric Utility Generating Units; Revisions to Emission Guideline Implementing Regulations; Revisions to New Source Review Program Emission Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emissions f rom Exist. Available at: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-08/documents/frn-ace-proposal_8.20.2018.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2018b) Oil and Natural Gas Sector: Emission Standards for New, Reconstructed, and Modified Sources Reconsideration. Available at: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-09/documents/frnoilgasreconsideration2060-at54nprm20180910.pdf.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. National Highway Safety Administration (2016) Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles - Phase 2. Available at: https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2016-10-25/pdf/2016-21203.pdf.
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USDA (2015) Building Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture and Forestry. Available at: http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?contentid=climate-smart.html (Accessed: 2 September 2015).