Viet Nam

Viet Nam has unconditionally committed to reduce GHG emissions by 15.8% below business-as-usual levels (BAU) by 2030. Viet Nam is willing to reduce GHG emissions by 43.5% below BAU, conditional on international support. The conditional target is a cumulative one. GHG emissions reduction from international support alone are 28% from 2030 BAU emissions.

The new unconditional and conditional targets translate to 863 and 620 MtCO₂e/yr, respectively, in terms of absolute emissions levels for 2030 or 12% and 37% below BAU, excluding the land use and forestry sector.

The updated NDC claims that new targets are aligned to fulfill Viet Nam’s commitments at COP26, yet it is not a true progression in scaling up climate action, as it is still aligned with 4°C of warming and requires no additional effort beyond current policies. Notably, at COP26, Viet Nam committed to reach net zero by 2050 along with additional pledges related to a coal phase out and methane emission reductions.

In the updated NDC, Viet Nam has transparently presented the financial requirements to achieve its unconditional and conditional targets.

The CAT rates Viet Nam’s targets as “Critically Insufficient”.

Viet Nam has pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Viet Nam submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC in November 2022 (Vietnam Government, 2022c). This is the second update provided by Viet Nam as it had also provided an update in 2020. Viet Nam is one of the few countries to have revisited its NDC targets in 2022, though these still need to be strengthened further.

In the updated NDC, Viet Nam increased its unconditional target to represent a 15.8% reduction below BAU in 2030, and a 43.5% reduction with international support.

While numerically stronger, the emissions targets are still “Critically insufficient” and will still be easily overachieved with its current policies and action, and will not drive further climate action. The CAT assessment therefore does not consider Viet Nam's NDC update to be stronger than its previous submission.

In line with its previous NDC, the updated NDC has transparently provided a sectoral breakdown of targets and policies. Viet Nam has also provided the detailed financial requirements to implement those policies to achieve the targets. Most of these measures are already laid out in the National Climate Change Strategy to 2050 (Vietnam Government, 2022b).

The updated NDC has also put forward a detailed implementation plan of the targets by improving policies and institutions, creating awareness and community engagement, capacity and technological development, financial mobility and enhanced international cooperation. A framework for monitoring and evaluation of the targets, which was presented in the previous NDC, is now part of revised Law on Environmental Protection 2020 through a new government regulation.

Though measures and implementation in the updated NDC improved on transparency and clarity but with only a minor improvement on ambition.

The BAU pathway in the updated NDC remains unchanged from previous 2020 NDC. The BAU scenario is developed based on “medium economic development” without clearly mentioning if it considers the dip in economic activities during pandemic.

While Viet Nam has made some improvements to the structure of its NDC, it continued with incomplete gas coverage. Emissions of F-gases are negligible in Viet Nam and the updated NDC does not include full greenhouse gas coverage, excluding NF₃, PFCs and SF₆. These were stated as included in the first NDC, however are not mentioned in the technical report that underlies the first NDC.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.
** We have updated these figures to include the latest 2030 BAU estimates to allow for comparability across estimates.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

• 11 December 2020: Viet Nam did not increase ambition

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Viet Nam will need support to achieve those needed reductions within its borders.

Viet Nam has put forward two targets in its NDC. One that it will achieving using its own resources (15.8% GHG emissions reduction from BAU) and one that requires international support (43.5% GHG emissions reduction from BAU). We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its borders defined by a modelled domestic pathway.

The starting year for the modelled domestic pathways, upon which our internationally supported target rating is based, is 2015. The modelled domestic emissions pathway for Viet Nam is downscaled from regional scenarios in the Asian region. Emissions in Viet Nam have been growing faster than the regional trends above the levels anticipated by the domestic pathways.

We estimate that Viet Nam’s conditional target would result in an emissions level of 620 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030, which we rate as “Critically insufficient”. This rating is based on Viet Nam’s modelled domestic pathway for a 1.5°C limit.

The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s conditional target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

With the NDC update, Viet Nam’s emission reductions under its conditional target have strengthened by 17% but are around three times higher than the 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway (210 MtCO₂e) for 2030. Substantial improvement is needed in this target and Viet Nam will need international support to achieve it. It is important that Viet Nam sets a stronger target to plan faster emissions reductions, if there were sufficient international support available, and not lock itself into a high carbon future.

We estimate that Viet Nam’s unconditional target would result in an emissions level of 863 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030, which we rate as “Critically insufficient”. This rating is based on Viet Nam’s fair share contribution at a 1.5°C limit.

The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s unconditional target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C . Viet Nam’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fairness. If all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

With the NDC update Viet Nam’s emission reductions under its unconditional target have improved by only 4% and are around 2.5 times more than a 1.5˚C compatible faire share target (350 MtCO₂e).

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Viet Nam announced a target to achieve net zero by 2050 target during the COP26 World Leaders' Summit in 2021. In July 2022, Viet Nam enshrined its net zero target into law. It has also developed a National Climate Change Strategy to guide its planning to achieve net zero by 2050. Viet Nam’s net zero target is conditional on international financial support.

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.