RELEASE: COP31 President Türkiye at a crossroads on power sector transformation

Climate COP31 host Türkiye continues to prioritise fossil fuels in its power sector, despite its vast potential to replace them with more affordable renewables and recent success in increasing renewable energy capacity, according to a new analysis of the country's power sector released today by the Climate Action Tracker.

Climate policymakers and experts gathering in New York next week will be focusing on ways to achieve the "35 x 35" (35% electrification by 2035) goal tabled by host country Türkiye as a key agenda item for COP31. While Türkiye's rate of electrification over the period 2013-2023 is stable at around 21% with official projections of only about 25% by 2035 so very significant policy changes to accelerate renewable electrification would be needed to bring it to 35% by 2035.

The CAT analysis points out that accelerating electrification needs to be coupled with ramping up clean energy, and a plan to transition away from fossil fuels. Not only does Türkiye have no fossil fuel phase-out plan, it continues to investment in fossil fuel exploration and production. While its energy sector the country's highest-emitting sector, electricity demand is also rising. Power generation from wind and solar is increasing, but not enough to displace fossil fuels which are also expanding.

Alongside its heavy coal use, the government is also seeking to establish itself as a fossil gas hub in the region.

"Türkiye's climate plans state fossil fuels will remain central to its energy mix until cheaper alternatives emerge. So by its own logic, it should be making the shift away from fossil fuels, given solar power is the country's lowest‑cost source of electricity and substantially undercuts domestic coal," said Bill Hare, CEO of CAT partner organisation Climate Analytics.

"While it has made good strides in setting up the right policy framework for renewables, it is still very much focused on fossil fuels as being central to its energy future."

In 2024, Türkiye overtook Germany as the largest producer of coal-fired electricity in Europe. While it has added no new capacity in the past two years, the government is continuing to subsidise coal, with long-term coal purchase agreements between public and private sectors; it's expanding existing coal fields, opening new ones, and continues to push policies aimed at maintaining or increasing coal production.

The CAT analysis sets out a number of actions Türkiye could take, such as a commitment to a coal phase-out that would include a just transition for workers, abandoning its oil and fossil gas hub plans, and ramping up renewables.

"Türkiye has put the right policies in place for renewables, and ahead of COP31 the government could demonstrate leadership as COP31 president by building on its recent successes in increasing its renewable energy capacity and announcing targets and plans to phase out coal and gas ahead of the COP," said Dr Niklas Höhne from CAT partner organisation NewClimate Institute.

"Critically insufficient"

The CAT has also just published its latest full country analysis of Türkiye's climate action, continuing to rate the country's overall performance as "Critically insufficient". It will easily be able to achieve its 2030 and 2035 climate targets under current policies, and its emissions are projected to continue rising through 2035.

Türkiye’s emissions projections have seen an upward correction compared to our last assessment of a year ago. Despite its strengthened renewables target, without a rapid decline of economy-wide emissions, Türkiye remains well off-track from aligning with 1.5°C compatible trajectory which would see Türkiye’s emissions begin to decline immediately.

It notes Türkiye's switch to renewables has now enabled Türkiye to produce key components for wind installations at home, including towers, blades, generators, and gearboxes, with a significant portion of equipment exported to Europe.

It is also moving fast on grid-scale batteries, putting Türkiye in a strong position to accelerate its renewable energy rollout.

And in 2025, Türkiye's government-backed and domestically manufactured electric vehicle, Togg, officially surpassed Tesla and BYD as the best-selling EV brand in Türkiye, as overall EV sales more than doubled, reaching 19% of total market share in the first half of 2026.

However, it still needs to accelerate the rollout of renewables and strengthen its renewable capacity goals, its 2030 and 2035 NDC targets and its long-term strategy to get to net zero by 2053.

Read the memo

Go to the Türkiye country page