Australia

Historical emissions data cover the period 1990–2025. They are taken from Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (DCCEEW, 2026b, 2026a).

2030 target

Conclusions of the present CAT assessment are subject to uncertainty in light of Australia’s frequent revisions of its emissions data. The government has repeatedly revised emissions projections downwards. This has typically not been backed by stronger climate policies but is rather the result of a change in assumptions.

The government has set an emissions reductions target of 43% below 2005 levels including LULUCF. To recalculate this target excluding LULUCF, we determine the targeted emissions level in 2030 including LULUCF (i.e. 43% below 2005 levels), then subtract LULUCF sequestration projected by the government for 2030. We then compare this projected emissions level excluding LULUCF in 2030 to 2005 emissions excluding LULUCF. We recalculate the NDC target excluding LULUCF every time the historical and projected emissions are updated.

LULUCF projections in this CAT update are taken from Australia’s emissions projections 2025 (DCCEEW, 2025b).

2035 target

The government has set an emissions reductions target of 62–70% below 2005 levels including LULUCF. To recalculate this target excluding LULUCF, we determine the targeted emissions level in 2035 including LULUCF (i.e. 62-70% below 2005 levels), then subtract LULUCF sequestration projected by the government for 2035 (-50 MtCO₂e). This leads to a 47–56% reduction below 2005, excluding LULUCF (232–280 MtCO₂e).

LULUCF projections in this CAT update are taken from Australia’s emissions projections 2025 (DCCEEW, 2025). Historical emissions data cover the period 1990–2025. They are taken from the Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (DCCEEW, 2026b, 2026a).

The current policy projections are based on government projections from 2025 (DCCEEW, 2025b), harmonised to Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (DCCEEW, 2026b, 2026a). The CAT always provides policies and action projections excluding LULUCF. To this end, the CAT subtracted the projections provided for LULUCF.

All the other sectors are based on the ‘baseline’ scenario of the government’s 2025 projections. The baseline scenario includes current policies and measures and announced policies where there is sufficient detail to make robust assumptions in the modelling (DCCEEW, 2025b). This includes the expanded Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), Safeguard Mechanism reforms, Powering the Regions Fund, and New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES). The full list of policies integrated in this scenario is available in the 2025 projections (DCCEEW, 2025b). The current policy projections assume that the government achieves its 82% renewable electricity target.

Australia’s 2025 Net Zero Plan is informed by the Treasury modelling published in September 2025, which explores three scenarios: 1) a renewable export upside scenario, 2) a disorderly transition scenario, and 3) the baseline scenario. The latter two would see Australia reach 43% emissions reduction by 2030 and 65% reduction by 2035, and net zero by 2050, by assuming the existing policy setting and the expected availability of technology. The 2025 Net Zero Plan reflects a policy selection broadly aligned with the baseline scenario and renewable export upside scenario (Australian Government, 2025c). In our analysis, we use the baseline scenario as a basis for assessing Australia’s climate trajectory to 2050 (Australian Government, 2025b). While the Plan and the sectoral plans provide emissions trajectories across the economy, their sectoral classification does not fully correspond to that of the UNFCCC.

Under this scenario, residual emissions in 2050 are projected to be 167 MtCO₂e as shown in Figure 5.5 of the plan document, and Table A.1 of the Treasury’s modelling. For our analysis, we treat this as net zero emissions excluding LULUCF. The Treasury modelling and the Net Zero Land plan assume that the land sector will be the only contributor to getting to net zero emissions by 2050, noting that other CDR solutions are “not assumed to be cost-competitive over this timeframe”.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series unless stated otherwise. Assessments completed prior to June 2025 used GWP values from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and those completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).