Bhutan

Bhutan’s second NDC target is to remain carbon neutral. In other words, Bhutan must keep emissions below the level of its net LULUCF sink. In its second NDC, Bhutan states that its LULUCF sink is based on a 2015 base year as it uses the estimate in its Third National Communication (NC3) (Royal Government of Bhutan 2021). Bhutan reported a net LULUCF sink of 7.8 MtCO₂e in its NC3 (Royal Government of Bhutan 2020a). Following standard CAT rating methodology, this target would be rated as “Critically insufficient” compared to both Bhutan’s fair share and to the emissions reductions needed within its borders to limit warming to 1.5°C based on global least cost pathways.

We have applied an alternative method to rate Bhutan’s NDC, given the fact that it is already carbon neutral (see below for details). Under this approach, we rate where Bhutan’s emissions will be in 2030 under a business-as-usual trajectory against Bhutan’s fair share contribution level. This results in an “Almost sufficient” rating. When we rate where Bhutan’s emissions will be in 2030 if its sectoral measures are fully implemented against where its emissions would need to be based on a global least cost modelled pathway for 1.5°C, Bhutan is rated as “1.5°C global least cost”.

In its second NDC, Bhutan has mentioned the goal to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, but given Bhutan’s current carbon negative status, this goal has already been achieved. The CAT currently does not evaluate Bhutan’s net zero target as no further information has been provided beyond the NDC. We will further evaluate the target once more information becomes available.

We rate where Bhutan’s emissions will be in 2030 if its sectoral measures are fully implemented - against where its emissions would need to be based on a 1.5°C global least cost modelled pathway. On that basis, we find it to be 1.5°C global least compatible.

We estimate Bhutan emissions will be between at 1.8-1.9 MtCO₂e in 2030 if it implements all sectoral mitigation measures presented in its various low emissions development strategies (LEDS) for the transport, agriculture, human settlements, and industry sectors. Our rating is based on the upper value of the range.

The "1.5°C global least cost" rating indicates that Bhutan’s emissions in 2030 are consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. Bhutan’s target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort.

It is important to highlight that Bhutan’s NDC and LEDS provide an estimate of implementation costs for the suggested actions and that Bhutan will need international support to achieve these reductions.

If we followed the standard CAT rating method, Bhutan’s NDC target of “carbon neutrality” – which we take as equivalent to its net LULUCF sink of 7.8 MtCO₂e (CAT rates targets excluding the forestry sector) – would be rated as “Critically insufficient” when compared to the level of emission reductions needed within Bhutan’s borders in order to limit warming to 1.5°C. This rating would imply that Bhutan’s NDC target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

However, Bhutan is already carbon neutral and making efforts to remain carbon neutral through the implementation of policies and measures. Applying our standard methodology would be misleading and unfair. A 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway based on global least cost shows what would be feasible for Bhutan to achieve with international support.

A more realistic and fair method would be to apply a rating based on the anticipated level of where emissions would be if Bhutan receives support for all of the measures it has planned, and this is what we have done.

We rate where Bhutan’s emissions will be in 2030 under a business-as-usual trajectory against Bhutan’s fair share contribution level. Under this approach, we rate Bhutan as “Almost sufficient”.

We estimate Bhutan’s emissions under this approach to be between 3.02-3.13 MtCO₂e in 2030. Our rating is based on the upper range of the estimate.

The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Bhutan’s emissions in 2030 are not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Bhutan’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Again, following the standard CAT rating method – where we would rate Bhutan’s NDC target to “remain carbon neutral”, estimated as 7.8 MtCO₂e in 2030, against its fair contribution – we would rate Bhutan as “Critically insufficient”. This would indicate that Bhutan’s target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C based on its fair share contribution.

However, Bhutan is already carbon neutral and is making efforts to remain carbon neutral through the implementation of policies measures. Applying our standard methodology would be misleading and unfair. For a country like Bhutan, its fair share contribution represents what would be fair to do using its own resources. As Bhutan has indicated it will need support to implement the measures outlined in its NDC, using a business as usual projection is a good measure of where Bhutan’s emissions will be in 2030 with its own resources and thus a more realistic and fair basis upon which to apply the CAT rating. The upper end of range falls within the "Almost sufficient" category. Bhutan could become 1.5°C compatible in the future if it slows its emissions growth.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Bhutan’s second NDC, submitted in June 2021, did not change the country’s carbon neutral target that it has had since 2009, and has been achieving. However, as a result of inventory data revisions, the ultimate emissions level of this target has increased.

Bhutan’s target to remain carbon neutral is admirable, especially given its Least Developed Country status. However, increasing energy and industry emissions could put Bhutan in a difficult position and could potentially jeopardise its ability to remain carbon neutral in the long-term, and risks breaching its carbon neutrality. Its Third National Communication projected that Bhutan would stop being carbon neutral in the 2040s. While those estimates were based on a smaller land sink, and given that historic emissions to 2020 have been lower than projected, the fact remains that Bhutan is at risk so long as emissions in these sectors continue to grow.

In its second NDC, Bhutan provided much greater detail on the types of mitigation measures it seeks to implement and the international support it needs.

*Bhutan's NDC target of remaining carbon neutral remains unchanged, however the estimate is higher because of revised inventory data.
**Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.
***The CAT adopts a different approach to rating Bhutan’s NDC target.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments

• 24 June 2021 “Bhutan submits a second NDC”

Bhutan has set an indicative goal of reaching net zero by 2050 (Royal Government of Bhutan 2021).

Bhutan first committed to remain carbon neutral during COP15 in 2009. In its second NDC, Bhutan adopted a net zero emissions by 2050 target, which it has already met given it is currently a net negative emitter. However, the NDC does not sufficiently detail how this target will be monitored and not exceeded in the future.

The CAT currently does not evaluate Bhutan’s net zero target due to a lack of information. We will update our assessment once more information becomes available.

For the full analysis click here.

Bhutan adopted a carbon neutral target in 2009 and has respected that target throughout the intervening years. Its ability to achieve this target is due to its large land sector sink, as its fossil emissions have increased during this period.