Chile

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

We rate Chile’s NDC “Highly Insufficient”.

The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Chile’s climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Chile’s unconditional NDC falls close to the border between two ratings, the “Highly insufficient” and the “Insufficient” category. If Chile were to slightly increase the ambition of their target and make it an absolute and more ambitious one, we would rate it “Insufficient”.

Chile has formulated its NDC targets as a reduction of the emissions intensity of GDP—the estimation of absolute emissions thus directly depend on projections of GDP—making the absolute emissions levels from Chile’s targets uncertain: In recent updates we already twice had to update the values based on new GDP data, once causing a substantial improvement of their target from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient”, and in this update a slight upwards move of the emissions level resulting from the NDC.

The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate Chile “Highly insufficient”. The rating in 2030 would be “Insufficient”, if the CAT were to rate Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under planned policies (scenario aligned with 2050 Energy Strategy), indicating that Chile’s planned policies in 2030 are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means Chile’s planned policies are at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and are not consistent with the Paris Agreement warming limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.

Most effort sharing approaches lead to similar levels of emissions allowances for Chile. The upper (less stringent) end of the “Insufficient” range is determined by effort sharing approaches focusing on staged emissions reductions. To be in line with the most stringent approaches, which focus on capability, Chile would need even further emissions reductions.

Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.