China

China submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC on October 28, 2021, ahead of COP26. The NDC update strengthened and expanded previous 2030 NDC targets and added a fifth new target of increasing wind and solar power installed capacity to over 1,200 GW by 2030.

Our revised assessment of the country’s policies shows that China is expected to significantly overachieve its energy-related NDC targets without a substantial increase in implementing additional mitigation policy but could be in danger of missing its carbon intensity target if emissions do not decline in the latter half of the decade.

The emissions reduction potential of the forest stock volume target is unclear and therefore not quantified. The CAT has retained its “Highly Insufficient” rating for China’s NDC targets when assessed against modelled domestic pathways (MDP). However, the rating for China’s targets assessed against fair share has improved to “Insufficient” due to an update in the underlying data rather than any actual change in the targets.

But whether China should receive some climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions is a matter of debate. Our methods do not provide a clear answer to this question. On balance, the CAT methodology shows China needing a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals. In any case, the NDC target achieved with its own resources would need to be increased significantly to be in line with the 1.5°C limit.

China also submitted its Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTS) with its NDC at the same time, containing the government’s commitment to reach “carbon neutrality before 2060”. Due to the size of China’s emissions, the difference in emissions coverage could make up to 0.1°C more (CO₂ only) or less (all GHGs) warming in 2100. Given the LTS submission does not meet the majority of our criteria for a best-practice approach in LTS formulation, we evaluate China’s net-zero target as “Poor”.

*This range refers to the median of the two NDC targets expected to result in lowest emissions. The lower bound is the lowest estimate for the peaking target and the upper bound is the carbon intensity target. See the Assumptions tab for more details.

China:

• Submitted a stronger target on 28 October 2021.

China officially submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC, updating its four separate NDC targets and adding a fifth target that aims to increase renewable capacity. The NDC target revisions are all improvements in ambition for emission reductions, and emission levels expected from the targets have all been revised lower compared to the first NDC. At the time of the updated NDC submission, the expected emission levels achieved under the NDC were within the range of China’s projected current policies emissions trajectory in 2030 (13.2 to 14.5 GtCO₂e).

After considering new policy developments and energy trends, the CAT has revised China’s current policies scenario projections to 13.8 -14.6 GtCO₂e in 2030 while achieving the NDC would reach emission levels of 14.0 GtCO₂e in 2030.

China is due to overachieve its non-fossil energy share and renewable capacity targets, which suggest emission levels of 15.4-16.4 GtCO₂e in 2030. This indicates that China could set more ambitious targets beyond its current policy trajectory. Meanwhile, without a significant reduction in emissions, China risks failing to meet its carbon intensity target, even if economic growth averages 5% per year in 2024-25, as stated in its 2024 government work report.

China’s NDC peaking target only directly covers CO₂ gases, omitting significant emissions from energy, agriculture, waste and industry.

* Emissions level and rating of China’s first NDC was based on the CPP of previous assessments when NDC was submitted and not aligned with the current CPP

** It refers to the median of the two NDC targets expected to result in lowest emissions. The lower bound is the lowest estimate for the peaking target and the upper bound is the carbon intensity target. See the Assumptions tab for more details

*** Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• “China submits updated NDC, confirming targets announced in September 2020”

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways).

China will need minimal support to achieve those needed reductions within its borders. China has one NDC (with four energy-related targets) and the CAT rating is based on the two targets which are estimated to have the lowest emission levels: the lower end of the carbon intensity target and the upper end of the peaking target. It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support or whether its NDC has an international element, so we rate its NDC target against both metrics.

Under China’s peaking and carbon-intensity NDC targets, the targets expected to achieve the lowest emission levels, China’s emission levels would reach 14.0 GtCO₂e/year in 2030 (the median of the two NDC targets expected to result in lowest emissions). China is likely to overachieve its energy-related NDC commitments with our current policy projections. The CAT rates China’s NDC target against modelled domestic pathways as “Highly Insufficient”.

The “Highly Insufficient” rating indicates that China’s NDC target in 2030 is not at all consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow China’s approach, warming would reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Whether China should or should not receive some climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions is a matter of debate. Our methods do not provide a clear answer to this question. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that China needing a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals (the figure above shows it to receive a small contribution). In any case, the NDC target achieved with its own resources would need to be increased significantly to be in line with the 1.5°C limit.

China’s emission levels under its NDC commitments are higher than what would be deemed Paris-compatible compared to our “fair share” approach, resulting in our rating of “Insufficient”. The upgrade in rating compared to the previous assessment is due to an update in the underlying data, not because of any actual change in the target.

The “Insufficient” rating indicates that China’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. China’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow China’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

We evaluate the net-zero target as: Poor.

China submitted its Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTS) on October 28, 2021 to the UNFCCC, which contains the country’s commitment to reach “carbon neutrality before 2060”. The commitment was first declared at the UN General Assembly in September 2020 by President Xi Jinping (FMPRC, 2020).

The officially-submitted LTS appears to confirm the commitment covers only carbon dioxide emissions, whereas the CAT had previously assumed the coverage was for all GHGs as claimed by Xie Zhenhua and Tsinghua University. The target is not yet enshrined in an official law but has become a core focus and narrative across all national and subnational planning documents, government notices, and politburo convenings, which was reaffirmed in China’s 2022 “Two Sessions” (Xinhua, 2022).

If China’s net zero target was to cover all GHG emissions, its long-term strategy could be within the range of mid-century Paris Agreement compatible emission levels, although compatibility also depends on the shape of the pathway (Yvonne Deng et al., 2020).

Due to the size of China’s emissions, this difference can make up to 0.1°C more (CO₂ only) or less (all GHGs) warming in 2100. Given the LTS submission does not meet the majority of our criteria for a best-practice approach in LTS formulation, we evaluate China’s net-zero target as “Poor”.

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