China

China submitted its new 2035 NDC in November 2025. A detailed analysis of its new targets is available here. Please note that the information provided below pertains to its 2030 NDC submitted in October 2021.

China submitted its updated 2030 NDC to the UNFCCC in October 2021 and its 2035 NDC in November 2025. Our assessment of the country’s policies shows that China is expected to overachieve its 2030 and 2035 NDC targets without implementing additional mitigation measures.

The CAT has retained its “Insufficient” rating for China’s 2030 NDC targets when assessed against fair share, and a “Highly Insufficient” rating when assessed against modelled domestic pathways (MDP). Overall, China’s NDC target continues to be rated as “Highly Insufficient.”

Whether China should receive some climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions is a matter of debate. Our methods do not provide a clear answer to this question. On balance, the CAT methodology shows a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals.

At the same time, China has positioned itself as a major emerging climate finance provider, having mobilised over USD 24.5bn in climate finance for developing countries since 2016 (around USD 2.7bn annually) though a lack of transparency obscures the full picture (Hou, 2024). Click or tap here to enter text.Regardless, China’s would need to significantly increase its NDC target to be in line with the 1.5°C limit.

China also submitted its Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTS) alongside its 2021 NDC submission, containing the government’s commitment to reach “carbon neutrality before 2060”. Due to the magnitude of China’s emissions, this difference in the LTS’ emissions coverage has global implications: the inclusion of only CO₂ would result in 0.1°C more in global warming in 2100, while the inclusion of all GHGs would result in 0.1°C less warming. Given the LTS submission does not meet the majority of our criteria for a best-practice approach in LTS formulation, we evaluate China’s net-zero target as “Poor.”

*This range refers to the median of the two NDC targets expected to result in lowest emissions. The lower bound reflects the minimum estimate for the non-fossil energy target, while the upper bound reflects the maximum estimate for the carbon intensity target. See the Assumptions tab for more details.

2030 NDC targets

China officially submitted its updated 2030 NDC to the UNFCCC in October 2021, updating its four separate targets within the NDC, and adding a fifth that aims to increase renewable capacity. The NDC target revisions are all improvements in ambition for emission reductions, and emission levels expected from the targets have all been revised downwards compared to the first NDC.

China’s NDC targets imply a range of possible emissions paths, as they reflect ambition across different policy dimensions rather than a single integrated scenario. The CAT quantifies four energy- and CO₂-related 2030 NDC targets based on conservative and optimistic current policy projections (CPPs), then selects the two most stringent. The implied 2030 emissions level is calculated as the average of the minimum and maximum values from these two targets. Details are provided in the Assumptions tab.

At the time of the updated NDC submission, the expected emission levels achieved under the NDC were within the range of China’s CPP emissions trajectory in 2030 (13.2-14.5 GtCO₂e). After considering new policy developments and energy trends, the CAT has revised China’s CPPs to 13.7 -14.4 GtCO₂e in 2030, while achieving the NDC would reach emission levels of 14.4 GtCO₂e in 2030.

* Emissions level and rating of China’s first NDC was based on the CPP of previous assessments when NDC was submitted and not aligned with the current CPP

** Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 28.10.2021 "China submits updated NDC, confirming targets announced in September 2020”
• 12.12.2020 "China proposes updated NDC targets”

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways).

China will need minimal support to achieve those needed reductions within its borders. China has one 2030 NDC (with four energy-related targets) and the CAT rating is based on the two targets estimated to have the lowest emission levels: the lower end of the non-fossil energy target and the upper end of the carbon intensity target. It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support or whether its NDC has an international element, so we rate its NDC target against both metrics.

Under China’s NDC targets, China’s emission levels would reach 14.4 GtCO₂e in 2030, marginally declining by 2% from 2025 levels. China is likely to overachieve its 2030 NDC commitments according to our current policy projections. The CAT rates China’s NDC target against modelled domestic pathways as “Highly Insufficient.”

The “Highly Insufficient” rating indicates that China’s NDC target in 2030 is not consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow China’s approach, warming would reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

China’s emission levels under its NDC commitments are higher than what would be deemed 1.5°C compatible compared to our “fair share” approach. The CAT maintains its rating of China’s NDC targets against its fair share as “Insufficient.”

The “Insufficient” rating indicates that China’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. China’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow China’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Whether China should receive some climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions is a matter of debate. Our methods do not provide a clear answer to this question. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals (the figure above shows China receiving a small contribution).

At the same time, China has positioned itself as a major emerging climate finance provider, having mobilised over USD 24.5bn in climate finance for developing countries since 2016 (around USD 2.7bn annually). Regardless, China would need to significantly increase its NDC target to be in line with the 1.5°C limit.

We evaluate the net-zero target as: Poor.

China submitted its Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTS) on October 28, 2021 to the UNFCCC, which contains the country’s commitment to reach “carbon neutrality before 2060”. The commitment was first announced by President Xi Jinping at the UN General Assembly in September 2020.

The Long-Term Strategy (LTS) appears to cover only CO₂ emissions, but China's Special Envoy for Climate Change, Xie Zhenhua, later clarified that the 2060 neutrality target encompasses all GHGs (China Dialogue, 2021). The expansion of China's 2035 NDC to cover economy-wide GHG emissions further supports the interpretation that the 2060 neutrality target applies to all GHGs, rather than CO₂ alone.

In the absence of explicit confirmation in official policy documents, the CAT takes a conservative approach and assumes that China's LTS covers only CO₂ emissions until further official clarification is provided.

If China’s net zero target were to cover all GHG emissions, its long-term strategy could be within the range of mid-century Paris Agreement compatible emission levels, although compatibility also depends on the shape of the pathway (Deng et al., 2020). Due to the magnitude of China’s emissions, this difference in the LTS’ emissions coverage has global implications: the inclusion of only CO₂ would result in 0.1°C more in global warming in 2100, while the inclusion of all GHGs would result in 0.1°C less warming.

Given the LTS submission does not meet the majority of our criteria for a best-practice approach in LTS formulation, we evaluate China’s net-zero target as “Poor”.

For the full net zero analysis click here.