Costa Rica

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Historical data

Historical emissions for the years 1990, 1996, 2000 and 2005 were taken from the latest UNFCCC inventory (UNFCCC, 2014). Data from the Third National Communication (Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía, 2014) was used for 2012. Data from the first Biennial Update Report (BUR) were used for 2012. We interpolated for the years in between. In its Third National Communication and Biennial Update Report, Costa Rica reported its emissions following the IPCC 2006 guidelines, meaning that emissions from Land Use and Forestry are reported as part of the AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use) category. The CAT analysis requires historical data for LULUCF emissions. We estimated LULUCF emissions for 2010 and 2012 by recalculating the values from the detailed AFOLU sectoral emissions. Updated values for emissions in 2005 and 2010 were provided in the BUR, but because there are no details on the AFOLU sector, we could not use these updated values.

Pledges

In previous CAT analyses, we assumed Costa Rica pledged carbon neutrality by 2021 as stated in the National Climate Change Strategy (2008), including emissions removals from LULUCF. However, Costa Rica’s NDC postponed the carbon neutrality target to 2085 and pledged to keep emissions below 9.37 MtCO2e by 2030, including LULUCF. Costa Rica also indicates a trajectory to its 2030 target in its NDC, with emissions of 10.9 MtCO2e in 2021. The CAT presents all targets excl. LULUCF. We have updated the LULUCF emissions projections for this analysis compared to previous years, and now use projections for LULUCF emissions from the Biennial Update Report (Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía, 2015b). The new LULUCF projections show a larger sink in 2021 and 2030, meaning that Costa Rica can emit more in other sectors and still achieve its target. This means that our estimation of Costa Rica’s target excl. LULUCF is higher (less ambitious) than in previous years. The change comes from a data update, not because Costa Rica has changed its target.

Current policy projections

Our current policy projections are based on the Conservative baseline scenario from the first Biennial Update Report (Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía, 2015b). This scenario includes only actions or projects at a sector or economy wide level that are already implemented or which have received a first investment that makes them irreversible (Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía, 2015b).