Ethiopia’s National Determined Contribution (NDC) is one of the few the Climate Action Tracker rates as “2°C compatible.” The “2°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate plans are within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort but are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement. Ethiopia’s NDC would lead to a reduction of at least 64% below the Ethiopian business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030, when emissions including LULUCF are projected to reach 400 MtCO2e. The corresponding GHG emissions reduction target for 2030, excluding LULUCF, is 40% below BAU, or 185 MtCO2e, which is the emissions level used to rate the emissions reduction target. Full implementation of the NDC is conditional on finance, technology transfer and capacity building support under the framework of Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) strategy, which is integrated in its national development plan GTP II (Second Growth and Transformation Plan). There is currently limited information available regarding the progress of GTP II. In addition, on 15 February 2018, the current Prime Minister Hailemriam Desalegn stepped down. It remains unclear what implications the change of leadership will have for Ethiopia’s climate policies, but it certainly increases the uncertainty.
The mitigation efforts will focus primarily on the forestry sector, which is expected to contribute with a reduction of 130 MtCO2e. The forestry sector, however, is not included in our rating as it is difficult to analyse it with effort sharing approaches (due to data uncertainty and dependency on country-specific circumstances). Ethiopia intends to use international carbon credits to meet its target.
Ethiopia’s NDC is based on the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) strategy, which is integrated in its national development plan GTP II (Second Growth and Transformation Plan). If policies are successfully implemented, the NDC target could be achieved in 2030. Uncertainty remains on the effectiveness of current policies in place, which is reflected in a range of current policy projections.