Ethiopia

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Summary table

Paris Agreement targets

According to its NDC, Ethiopia intends to limit the country´s GHG emissions in 2030 to 145 MtCO2e including LULUCF (185 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF) or lower, which represents a reduction of at least 64% (40% excluding LULUCF) under the BAU. In the long term, Ethiopia aims to become a carbon-neutral economy while attaining the status of a middle-income country. The NDC does not specify a target year for the carbon neutrality goal.

The full implementation of the NDC is subject to an ambitious multilateral agreement that enables Ethiopia to receive international support. Ethiopia intends to use international carbon credits to achieve its Green Economy Strategy. The NDC does not state the size of expected support, nor the amount of carbon credits.

2020 Pledge

Under the Copenhagen accord, Ethiopia proposed several Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) that focus primarily on the electricity and transport sector. Limited information is available regarding the status of implementation of the NAMAs .

Long term goal(s)

In the long term (2050) Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2015). Ethiopia is in the process of developing a long-term strategy under the 2050 pathway platform – once this is submitted we will revise the 2050 target accordingly.