Ethiopia

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Historical emissions

The historical dataset is based on the UNFCCC GHG inventory data for 1990 and 1994 and the GHG inventory provided in the Second National Communication for 1994–2013 (Ministry of Environment and Forest, 2015). CO2 equivalent emissions of CH4 and N2O were recalculated with the Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of the IPCC 2nd Assessment Report (SAR). F-gases are only partially reported and their contribution is negligibly small. As a consequence, F-gases are not included in the reported historical emissions for 1994–2013.

Pledge

The 2020 target consists of a list of NAMAs (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2010). Due to the high uncertainty and difficulties in quantification due to the nature of the NAMAs we abstain from quantification. Currently, there is very limited information available on status.

Targets for 2030 including LULUCF are based on the NDC submission data. We calculate the target excluding LULUCF by deducting LULUCF emission projections in 2030, based on the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy report (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethopia, 2011).

Current policy projections

Due to uncertainty regarding the effective implementation of policies, we show a range of projections for the period 2014-2030.

The upper end of the range of our current policy analysis assumes that GHG emissions will grow according to the BAU scenario projections provided by the Second National Communication submitted to the UNFCCC (The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2015). We assume this baseline scenario includes all the policies listed in First Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP I) (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2010), including the renewable energy capacity extension to 8 GW and 20,000 biogas plants to come online between 2014–2017 as part of the National Biogas Programme (NBP). Since the base year for the baseline scenario is 2010, some differences emerge when comparing the projections with the inventory data already in 2013. This difference remains even after harmonising the assumptions on GWP (Global Warming Potentials): we harmonise the projections by applying baseline growth rates to 2010 historical values. To reconcile this issue, we use inventory data until 2013 and then apply a linear interpolation for the data in between 2013 (inventory data) and 2020 (harmonized baseline projections).

The lower end of the range of our current policy projections, assumes an effective implementation of the CRGE strategy as referenced in the NDC. This lower-bound scenario is based on the Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), which reiterates that Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy is fully implemented until 2020 (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2016).

Due to a lack of information on the progress of implementation of the GTP II, it remains unclear if the CRGE strategy will be effectively implemented by 2020. The change in leadership is another potential threat in the timely implementation.