We rate the NDC 2030 reduction target of 26% (23% excluding LULUCF credits) below 2013 levels as “Highly Insufficient.” Our assessment identifies a relatively large gap1 compared to the level at which we would rate Japan’s contribution as “2°C compatible” let alone “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible”. Under our CAT analysis the “2°C compatible” rating would require a maximum emission level of 293 MtCO2e/yr in 2030 or 76% below 1990 emission level. This stands in stark contrast to Japan’s claim that the NDC is in line with a 2°C target.
The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Japan’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Japan’s climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. We also rate Japan’s 2020 pledge “Highly Insufficient”. We would rate Japan’s former target of a 25% emissions reduction below 1990 levels as “Insufficient”. Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
If the CAT were to rate Japan’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, Japan would also be rated “Highly Insufficient.”
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.
1 | We explicitly do not mention a number here, please see the methodology section for an explanation