Nepal

In its latest NDC, Nepal has set an activity-based target for both its unconditional and conditional targets. The unconditional target covers the energy sector by adding 5 GW of clean energy. However, given the NDC has no unconditional emissions reduction target, the CAT could not quantify this unconditional target, and has therefore had to use Nepal’s current policy projections as its unconditional target. The CAT rates this as “1.5°C compatible” compared to Nepal's fair share.

According to CAT calculations, the new conditional NDC would lead to emission levels between 59–64 MtCO₂e in 2030, depending on the interpretation of the sectoral targets and the overlaps with the energy sector targets. The CAT rates this as “Critically insufficient” against modelled domestic pathways.

*For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate, see the Assumptions tab.

On December 8, 2020 Nepal submitted its second NDC to the UNFCCC. This NDC represents a step forward from its predecessor, as it now contains quantitative activity-based and policy targets in key sectors and, for the first time, some of the energy-related targets are listed as an unconditional commitment.

Nepal should further enhance transparency of its NDC targets and provide an absolute emissions reduction target for all sectors. The NDC provided limited details on some of the sectoral target, so it was not possible to estimate the impact of all of them. This means the total reduction under the conditional NDC could potentially be higher than our estimates. Due to the absence of an absolute emissions reduction target for the unconditional target, the CAT could not quantify it, so we use Nepal’s current policy projections as its unconditional target.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.
**The CAT has not quantified this target but uses emissions levels from Nepal’s Policies and action.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 08.12.2020: Nepal submitted a stronger NDC target

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Nepal will need support to achieve those needed reductions with its borders.

Nepal has put forward two targets in its NDC. One that it will achieving using its own resources and one that requires international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its border defined by a modelled domestic pathway. In the case of Nepal, the CAT could not quantify the unconditional target because an absolute emissions reduction target was not provided, so we use Nepal’s current policy projections as its unconditional target.

Nepal’s current “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that its conditional 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, when compared to modelled domestic pathways. If all countries were to follow Nepal’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We haven’t included all sectoral measures in our assessment of Nepal’s conditional target because the NDC provided limited details on some of the sectoral target, so it was not possible to estimate the impact of all of them. Nepal is encouraged to provide further information on the quantification of its NDC and to exceed this target with international support.

Given the NDC has no unconditional emissions reduction target, the CAT therefore had to use Nepal’s current policy projections as its unconditional target. Our current policy projection and the conditional target both fall within the 1.5°C range. The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Nepal’s fair share target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Nepal’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Average.

Nepal announced its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality before, or by, 2045, in October 2021. The long-term strategy sets out targets that cover all sectors of the economy – energy, industry process, agriculture, forestry and land use, and waste. However, the LTS only covers CO₂ emissions despite non-CO₂ emissions accounting for 70% of Nepal total emission (excl. LULUCF) in 2021 (Gütschow, Günther and Pflüger, 2022) .

The LTS gives two emission reduction scenarios. The first scenario, With Existing Measures (WEM), takes into account the plans and policies implemented and adopted up to 2020, as well as potential adoption in 2030 and 2050. The WEM scenario does not target carbon neutrality, while the With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario does. The WAM scenario includes more ambitious targets; conditional on international support and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 (Government of Nepal, 2021).

In the WEM scenario, net CO₂ emissions will be reduced by 30 MtCO₂e in 2030 and 50 MtCO₂e in 2050 [GWP AR5]. In WAM scenario, Nepal’s net CO₂ emissions are projected to be negative from 2020 to 2030 due to a LULUCF carbon sink, then remain around ‘zero’ throughout 2035 to 2045 (Government of Nepal, 2021).

The LTS outlines investment in clean energy as the main strategy for emission reductions. It also emphasises the significant role of the LULUCF sector in supporting ‘net negative carbon emissions by 2050’. Both scenarios cover energy efficiency improvement, fuel switching and a strong target for electrification across most sectors (Government of Nepal, 2021).

For the full analysis click here