Türkiye

Türkiye’s climate policy can be characterised by a blend of the good, the bad and the ugly. A commitment to reaching 120 GW of installed wind and solar capacity by 2035 is commendable, but that 2035 target would need to increase to 150 GW to align with 1.5°C. Meanwhile, efforts to increase fossil gas production and become a gas hub, as well as continued coal use, put Türkiye’s commitment to its net zero target in question and risk locking Türkiye into a fossil fuel intensive future.

Türkiye’s NDC is far above its current policies and therefore demonstrates little to no ambition in cutting emissions in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. The NDC target allows emissions to continue increasing and will easily be over-achieved with current policies, meaning that it does not drive real-world emissions reductions nor the highest ambition policies. Türkiye will need to submit a significantly stronger emissions reduction target for 2030, develop a coal phase-out plan and stop investing in fossil fuels if it is serious about its commitment to reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2053. Türkiye’s overall CAT rating remains unchanged at ‘Critically insufficient’, though it has seen an improvement in current policies to ‘Highly insufficient’.

Türkiye’s NDC provides an absolute emissions target of 695 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF) in 2030, which equates to 765 MtCO₂e when LULUCF is excluded. It also allows emissions to continue increasing until 2038, which is far too late to align with 1.5°C or achieve its net zero target in 2053 without extremely steep reductions over a 15-year period. Türkiye should submit a stronger, 1.5°C compatible NDC which can drive ambition and provide a realistic pathway towards achieving the 2053 target.

Türkiye’s recently-announced Roadmap for Renewable Energy to 2035 aims to roll out renewables at a rate of “at least” 7.5–8 GW a year until 2035, along with investments of USD 28 bn to upgrade the grid. This represents a sustainable form of diversifying Türkiye’s energy mix. Türkiye has large potential for wind and solar, and both technologies are witnessing declining costs; a trend that will only continue. They therefore represent a cost-effective and sustainable way to increase energy independence. While Türkiye’s 2035 wind and solar target should be lauded as an impressive commitment to scaling up clean energy, without major decreases in energy demand it will not be enough to align with the 1.5°C temperature goal.

Plans to simultaneously and substantially increase domestic fossil fuel production and use run counter to the goals of the Paris Agreement, which requires a phasing out of fossil fuel capacity rather than a scaling up. Türkiye is investing heavily in oil and gas exploration, with plans for 270 drilling operations in 2025. If this course is not reversed, it risks locking Türkiye into a carbon-intensive future.

Even more worrying is Türkiye’s continued reliance on coal. Despite its severe health and environmental impacts, Türkiye is poised to become the largest producer of coal-fired electricity in Europe by 2025. However, a significant coal pipeline has recently been shelved as state support for renewables grows, indicating positive steps towards reducing Türkiye’s coal dependence in the longer-term. Given that a coal phase-out is low hanging fruit for decarbonising the economy, Türkiye should commit to phasing out existing coal capacity from its power sector.

Recent positive policy developments include:

• The 2035 renewables target combined with investments in grid infrastructure: an important step towards decarbonising the grid.
• Efforts to streamline permitting processes for renewable energy projects from the current four years to two years or less, introducing tenders, and offering a floor price and long-term electricity purchase guarantees to investors: this will improve the regulatory environment for investing in renewables and allow quicker returns on investments.
• Investments of USD 20 bn to improve energy efficiency by 16% by 2030: this will take pressure off the grid and support Türkiye in decoupling emissions from economic growth.
• The introduction of an Emissions Trading System (ETS) similar to the European Union’s ETS: this will be a central pillar of reducing Türkiye’s industrial emissions. The ETS, which will also apply to the shipping sector, can improve the competitiveness of Turkish industry and provide a more predictable emissions reduction path for companies to follow.
• Investments in the manufacturing of Türkiye’s own domestically-produced electric vehicle, the Togg, can combine industrial policy with transport policy, providing green jobs and growth while supporting emissions reductions in the transport sector.

To improve its climate targets and action rating, Türkiye could:

• Develop a fossil fuel phase-out plan for the power sector. Türkiye is currently on track to becoming the largest producer of coal-fired electricity in Europe by 2025 and is investing heavily in fossil gas, both of which should be phased out of the power sector in the 2030s.
• Strengthen its wind and solar target with the aim of bringing 150 GW of capacity online by 2035.
• Speed up implementation; in 2023 just 2 GW of solar and just 411 MW of wind capacity was added to the grid. Considering that current targets fall short of aligning with 1.5°C compatible pathway, failing to implement them is inexcusable.
• Set a stronger 2030 NDC target that goes beyond current policies and drives emissions reductions. Ideally, this would be in the form of an emissions limit or reduction from a historical base year.
• There is much to be improved in Türkiye’s draft climate law. Pathways that demonstrate how Türkiye intends to reach net zero, and developing clear policies with actionable targets and measures can improve transparency and help ministries to implement climate goals effectively.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Türkiye’s climate targets, policies and finance as “Critically insufficient”, a rating that indicates Türkiye’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

In April 2023, Türkiye submitted an updated NDC target. However, this new 2030 NDC target relies on a business as usual (BAU) scenario which uses a historical base year of 2012. Emissions have grown far slower than emissions under that BAU scenario. The target does not drive real-world emissions reductions, and cannot be considered at all ambitious.

Current policy projections indicate that Türkiye’s emissions will continue to grow. Despite recently improved renewables target, without a peaking and rapid decline in economy-wide emissions, Türkiye remains well off-track from aligning with 1.5°C.

For a better rating, Türkiye needs to set an ambitious NDC target and develop and implement policies that will set its projected emissions on a clear downward trajectory across all sectors.

Türkiye’s current policies and action are “Highly insufficient” when compared to its fair share contribution. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s policies and action in 2030 lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions and are not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. Türkiye needs to focus on adopting further policies and action to stop its emissions growth and start reducing emissions towards decarbonisation.

Plans to scale up wind and solar by at least 7.5–8 GW a year until 2035, along with a USD 20 billion package to reduce energy demand by 16% by 2030 represent positive steps towards decarbonising Türkiye’s economy. However, they are not enough to align with 1.5°C. If Türkiye succeeds in meeting its annual additions target by 2035, it will have 120 GW of installed wind and solar capacity. To be 1.5°C aligned, however, Turkey would need to install 150 GW by 2035.

At the same time, Türkiye continues to invest in fossil fuels to meet energy demand, with plans to become a fossil gas hub and 4.6 GW of coal capacity still in the pipeline. These developments stand in contrast to 1.5°C compatible scenarios; to align with 1.5°C, Türkiye needs to effectively phase out fossil fuels from the power sector in the 2030s, providing almost 100% renewable electricity by 2035.

Türkiye is launching an Emissions Trading System (ETS) which will play an important part in cutting industrial emissions and adapting to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, thus maintaining competitiveness for Türkiye’s export-driven industries.

Along with cutting emissions in carbon-intensive industries through the ETS, Türkiye is investing in the domestic manufacturing of electric cars and trains. Through domestic production, it is likely that this will feed into higher uptake in the Turkish transport sector.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

We rate Türkiye’s updated NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s NDC target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Türkiye already achieves this target based on our emissions estimate for 2030 under current policies, which further highlights the weakness of this target. Türkiye should significantly strengthen its 2030 target.

We also rate Türkiye’s updated NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s NDC target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We do not have sufficient information to assess Türkiye’s climate finance contribution.

In 2021, Türkiye announced a 2053 net zero target. Since then, Türkiye’s Climate Council released a roadmap to achieve net zero emissions and the government developed a draft climate law. Türkiye was expected to submit a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC in 2022, but has not done so. It is now expected to be released at COP29. We evaluate the 2053 target as: "Poor".

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.