Türkiye

While wind and solar are on the rise in Türkiye, the government's clear intention to increase the country's reliance on fossil fuels leaves its climate intentions in doubt. The passage of a new Climate Law in July 2025 lays the foundations for a Turkish emissions trading system (ETS) based on the EU model and enshrines Türkiye’s net zero and NDC targets into law, a long-awaited move by the government. Yet at the same time, the government's efforts to increase fossil gas production and become a fossil gas hub, as well as cement its current status as the largest producer of coal-fired electricity in Europe, put Türkiye’s commitment to its net zero target in question and risk locking the country into a fossil fuel future.

The 2030 target allows emissions to continue increasing and will easily be achieved with Türkiye’s current policies, meaning that it neither drives real-world emission reductions nor represent any real effort to decarbonise. A commitment to install 120 GW of new wind and solar capacity by 2035 is commendable, but this 2035 target would need to further be increased to a total of 150 GW to align with 1.5°C benchmarks. The Long Term Climate Strategy, submitted in November 2024, allows emissions to continue to rise until 2038, putting the net zero target further out of reach. A 1.5°C compatible trajectory would see Türkiye’s emissions begin to decline immediately, falling by about 40% below 2023 levels by 2030.

While the government has shown considerable interest in climate action, it must strengthen and accelerate its implementation to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. To substantiate its commitment to reaching net zero emissions by 2053, Türkiye will need to strengthen its emissions reduction target for 2030, submit a new NDC target for 2035 in line with 1.5°C, develop a coal phase-out plan, and stop investing in fossil fuels. Türkiye’s overall CAT rating remains unchanged at “Critically insufficient.”

Türkiye’s NDC sets out an unconditional 2030 target of reducing emissions 41% below a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. This translates to an absolute emissions target of 699 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF) in 2030, or 750 MtCO₂e when the land sector is excluded. This target thus allows emissions to continue increasing until 2038, which is not aligned with a 1.5°C pathway and would require extremely steep emissions reductions post-2038 to reach net zero by 2053.

While Türkiye has not yet submitted its 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC, President Erdogan recently announced that Türkiye aims to reduce emissions to 643 MtCO₂e by 2035, a target 32% above 2022 levels (Turkiye Today, 2025). Once the target has been formally submitted, our full analysis will be available on the 2035 NDC tab.

Strong intermediate targets between now and 2053 can drive ambition and put Türkiye on a path to successfully achieving the 2053 target. Türkiye should submit a stronger, 1.5°C compatible 2030 NDC target and a strong 2035 target, which can provide a clear pathway towards reaching net zero. Modelled domestic pathways show that aligning with 1.5°C would see Türkiye cut its emissions by 40% in 2030 and 53% in 2035 below 2023 levels (excluding LULUCF).

In October 2024, Türkiye announced its Roadmap for Renewable Energy to 2035, aiming to roll out new wind and solar capacity at a rate of “at least” 7.5–8 GW a year until 2035, along with investments of USD 28bn to upgrade the grid. This represents a sustainable path to reducing the share of fossil fuels in Türkiye’s energy mix.

Türkiye has large wind and solar potential, and both technologies are experiencing declining costs; a trend that will only continue. They therefore represent a cost-effective and sustainable way to increase energy independence. While Türkiye’s 2035 wind and solar target is an impressive commitment to scaling up renewable energy, without major decreases in energy demand, improvements to energy efficiency, and widespread electrification, it will not be enough to align with the 1.5°C warming limit.

Plans to simultaneously and substantially increase domestic fossil fuel production and use run counter to the goals of the Paris Agreement, which would see Türkiye cut both coal and fossil gas’s share in electricity generation to single digits by 2030 and 0–3% by 2035 in a 1.5C compatible pathway (Climate Action Tracker, 2023). Türkiye is investing heavily in oil and fossil gas exploration, with plans for 270 drilling operations in 2025. With the EU turning away from Russian gas in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Türkiye aims to position itself as a new regional hub for oil and fossil gas. If this course is not reversed, it risks locking Türkiye into a carbon-intensive economy in the future.

Even more worrying is Türkiye’s continued reliance on coal, which provided 36% of energy in 2024 (Ember, 2025). Despite its severe health and environmental impacts, Türkiye overtook Germany in 2024 to become the largest producer of coal-fired electricity in Europe. However, a significant coal pipeline has recently been shelved as state support for renewables grows, indicating positive steps towards reducing Türkiye’s coal dependence in the longer-term. Given that a coal phase-out is low hanging fruit for decarbonising the economy, Türkiye should commit to phasing out existing coal capacity from its power sector.

Recent positive policy developments include:

• The passage of a new Climate Law sets out a legal framework for a Turkish Emissions Trading System (ETS) similar to the European Union’s model, with a pilot phase set to begin in 2026, and enshrines Türkiye’s net zero and NDC targets into law.
• The Roadmap for Renewable Energy to 2035 combined with investments in grid infrastructure are important steps towards decarbonising the grid.
• Efforts to streamline permitting processes for renewable energy projects from the current four years to two years or less, introducing tenders, and offering a floor price and long-term electricity purchase guarantees to investors supports improving the regulatory environment for investing in renewables.
• Investments of USD 20bn to improve energy efficiency by 16% by 2030 to take pressure off the grid and support Türkiye in decoupling emissions from economic growth.
• Investments in the manufacturing of the Togg, Türkiye’s domestically produced electric vehicle, aims to combine industrial policy with transport policy – providing green jobs and growth while supporting emissions reductions in the transport sector.

To improve its climate targets and action rating, Türkiye could:

• Develop a fossil fuel phase-out plan. Türkiye became the largest producer of coal-fired electricity in Europe in 2024 and is investing heavily in fossil gas, both of which should be phased out of the power sector in the 2030s. Efforts by the current government to set Türkiye up as an oil and fossil gas hub risk damaging the economy by locking the economy into a fossil fuel future. Committing to phasing out fossil fuels across all sectors would set Türkiye on a path toward sustainable prosperity.
• Strengthen its wind and solar target. To align with a 1.5C compatible pathway, Türkiye should aim to bring 150 GW of capacity online by 2035.
• Speed up instalment of renewable capacity In 2023 just 2 GW of solar and just 411 MW of wind capacity was added to the grid. Considering that current targets fall short of aligning with 1.5°C compatible pathway, failing to accelerate their implementation puts Türkiye even further behind.
• Set a stronger 2030 NDC target and submit a 2035 NDC that goes beyond current policies and drives emissions reductions. Ideally, this would be in the form of an emissions limit or reduction from a historical base year.
• Strengthen its Long Term Climate Strategy (LTS). Türkiye can substantiate its LTS by outlining pathways showing how Türkiye intends to reach net zero, developing clear policies with actionable targets and measures. The government needs to build on the framework of the new Climate Law to set up periodic reviews to monitor progress to improve transparency and help ministries implement climate goals effectively. Expanding the net zero target to cover the aviation and shipping sectors, in combination with periodic reviews, offers the chance for Türkiye to significantly increase its climate ambition.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Türkiye’s climate targets, policies and finance as “Critically insufficient”, a rating that indicates Türkiye’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

In April 2023, Türkiye submitted an updated NDC target. However, this new 2030 NDC target relies on a business as usual (BAU) scenario which uses a historical base year of 2012. Emissions have grown far slower than emissions under that BAU scenario. The target does not drive real-world emissions reductions, and cannot be considered at all ambitious.

Current policy projections indicate that Türkiye’s emissions will continue to grow. Despite recently improved renewables target, without a peaking and rapid decline in economy-wide emissions, Türkiye remains well off-track from aligning with 1.5°C.

For a better rating, Türkiye needs to set an ambitious NDC target and develop and implement policies that will set its projected emissions on a clear downward trajectory across all sectors.

Türkiye’s current policies and action are “Highly insufficient” when compared to its fair share contribution. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s policies and action in 2030 lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions and are not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. Türkiye needs to focus on adopting further policies and action to stop its emissions growth and start reducing emissions towards decarbonisation.

Plans to scale up wind and solar by at least 7.5–8 GW a year until 2035, along with a USD 20 billion package to reduce energy demand by 16% by 2030 represent positive steps towards decarbonising Türkiye’s economy. However, they are not enough to align with 1.5°C. If Türkiye succeeds in meeting its annual additions target by 2035, it will have 120 GW of installed wind and solar capacity. To be 1.5°C aligned, however, Turkey would need to install 150 GW by 2035.

At the same time, Türkiye continues to invest in fossil fuels to meet its energy demand, with plans to become a fossil gas hub and expand oil and gas production. These developments stand in contrast to 1.5°C compatible scenarios; to align with 1.5°C, Türkiye needs to effectively phase out fossil fuels from the power sector in the 2030s, providing almost 100% renewable electricity by 2035.

Türkiye is set to launch an Emissions Trading System (ETS), with a pilot phase scheduled to begin in 2026. The ETS will play an important part in cutting industrial emissions and adapting to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, thus maintaining competitiveness for Türkiye’s export-driven industries.

Along with cutting emissions in carbon-intensive industries through the ETS, Türkiye is investing in the domestic manufacturing of electric cars and trains. Through domestic production, it is likely that this will feed into higher uptake in the Turkish transport sector.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

We rate Türkiye’s updated NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s NDC target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Türkiye already achieves this target based on our emissions estimate for 2030 under current policies, which further highlights the weakness of this target. Türkiye should significantly strengthen its 2030 target.

We also rate Türkiye’s updated NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s NDC target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We do not have sufficient information to assess Türkiye’s climate finance contribution.

Türkiye released its long-term strategy (LTS) at COP29 (İklim Değişikliği Başkanliği [Climate Change Directorate], 2024), which reaffirmed its previously announced target of reaching net zero emissions by 2053. If Türkiye successfully achieves this target, it would be a commendable contribution to the global effort to combat climate change. However, as the LTS is currently written, we do not deem it a strong attempt to realise the 2053 goal. We evaluate the target as: “Poor”.

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.