Paris Agreement targets
Turkey finally ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2021. At that time, it submitted its 2015 INDC as its NDC, with the aim of unconditionally reducing GHG emissions including LULUCF in 2030 by 21% below a BAU projection. The NDC submission included a reference BAU projection of emissions in 2030 of 1175 MtCO2e, including LULUCF and a target emissions level is 929 MtCO2e (incl. LULUCF) (The Republic of Turkey, 2015).
The CAT excludes LULUCF from its calculations. Turkey has used the NDC BAU and mitigation scenario as its ‘without measures’ and ‘with measures’ scenarios in its national reporting since first submitting the target as an INDC. It has not updated these scenarios, only the historic data. In its 4th Biennial Report, it provided the scenarios both including and excluding LULUCF (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2019). We use the mitigation scenario 2030 figure excluding LULUCF, 999 MtCO2e, for our target calculations.
The CAT rates Turkey’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when rated against both modelled domestic pathways (“domestic target”) and against its fair share contribution (“fair share target”. Turkey does not specify a conditional target or an international element in its NDC, so we rate the same target against the two rating frameworks.
We rate Turkey’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Turkey’s NDC target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Turkey’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.
Turkey is on track to overachieve this target by a wide margin based on our emissions estimate for 2030 under current policies, which further highlights the weakness of this target.
We rate Turkey’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Turkey’s NDC target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Turkey’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. If all countries were to follow Turkey’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.
We do not have sufficient information to assess Turkey’s climate finance contribution.
Under the UNFCCC, Turkey is an Annex I country and thus not eligible to receive climate finance through the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Our methods do not provide a clear answer for the need for finance for Turkey. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that Turkey should, if at all, receive limited climate finance. Our approach would not expect Turkey to provide climate finance to other countries.
Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.
Last NDC update
Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2021 and submitted its 2015 INDC as its first NDC at that time. Turkey has not submitted updated NDC at the time of publication.
Net zero and other long-term target(s)
Turkey recently announced a 2053 net zero target, but few details are available (Presidency of the Republic of Turkey, 2021).
Turkey did not submit a 2020 target under the Copenhagen Accord.