Historical emissions for 1990-2019 are taken the common reporting format tables in Turkey’s 2021 National Inventory Report (Government of Turkey, 2021).
NDC and other targets
Turkey only provided its BAU and mitigation scenario incl. LULUCF in its NDC submissions. The CAT excludes LULUCF from its calculations. Turkey has used the NDC BAU and mitigation scenario as its ‘without measures’ and ‘with measures’ scenarios in its national reporting since it first submitted its INDC. It has not updated these scenarios, only the historic data. In its 4th Biennial Report, it provided the scenarios both including and excluding LULUCF (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2019). We use the mitigation scenario 2030 figure excluding LULUCF for our target calculations.
Policies and action projections
Turkey provided a ‘mitigation scenario’ in its original INDC submission in 2015 which showed the reduction of its 21% below BAU 2030 target. It has not updated this scenario in subsequent national reporting to the UNFCCC, only updating the historic data.
The upper bound of our policies and action emissions projection is based on the growth rates of this mitigation scenario, harmonised to the last historic year (2019).
The lower bound of our policies and action emissions projection uses the historic trend of GDP elasticity to estimate emissions for energy and industry. We use growth rates from the US EPA for the agriculture and waste sectors (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019). While the US EPA estimates are for non-CO2 emissions only, the amount of CO2 emitted by these sectors in small and so we use the growth rates for the sector as a whole.
We compared our estimates to recent analysis of potential emissions trajectory for the Turkish power sector (excluding any impact of the pandemic). If one assumes the same ratio for power sector to energy emissions and energy to industry emissions in 2030 as 2019, the estimates for the Turkish power sector in our policies and action max and min scenarios (approx. 175-210 MtCO2e) are similar to those based on market forces, low demand or a focus on increasing domestic supply, which are around 200-220MtCO2e in 2030.
We applied a novel method to estimate the COVID-19 related dip in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and the deployment through to 2030. The uncertainty surrounding the severity and length of the pandemic creates a new level of uncertainty for current and future greenhouse gas emissions.
We calculated the emission intensity (GHG emissions/GDP) of our pre-pandemic updated policies and action emissions projection (see above). We used data from the IMF’s October 2019 World Economic Outlook for GDP growth in 2020-2024 and from a 2017 PwC report for the rests of the decade applied to 2019 historical GDP data for Turkey from the World Bank (IMF, 2019; PWC, 2017; World Bank, 2021).
We used data from the IMF’s April 2021 World Economic Outlook for GDP growth in 2021-2026 and from a 2017 PwC report for the rests of the decade applied to 2020 historical GDP data for Turkey from the World Bank to estimate the impact of the pandemic (IMF, 2021; PWC, 2017; World Bank, 2021). These revised GDP estimates were applied to our pre-pandemic emissions intensity estimates to calculate GHG emissions for the decade.
Global warming potentials
Previous assessments of the Climate Action Tracker used the global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR). Since the assessment at COP24 in the year 2018 all figures and time series are based on 100-year GWPs from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).