Historical emissions for 1990-2020 are taken from the common reporting format tables in Türkiye’s 2022 National Inventory Report (Republic of Türkiye, 2022b).
We used a sectoral approach to estimate 2021 emissions. We use PRIMAP growth rates applied to 2020 historical emissions for energy and industry emissions (Gütschow et al., 2022). We assume that the impact of the pandemic on the agriculture and waste emissions in 2021 was minimal, and so have extended emissions from those sectors using the five-year trend from 2016-2020.
NDC and other targets
Updated NDC (2023)
The updated NDC continues to use the same BAU scenario including LULUCF as the first NDC and INDC. The CAT excludes LULUCF from its calculations. Since the updated NDC does not provide separate projections for LULUCF, we assume that the LULUCF sink is the same as what is reported in Türkiye’s 4th Biennial Report ‘with measures’ scenario which corresponded to the mitigation scenario from Türkiye’s first NDC (2021). We calculated the new 41% reduction target excluding LULUCF using these values (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2019; Republic of Türkiye, 2023).
Net zero target
We estimate Türkiye’s emissions in 2053 for the purpose of our global temperature estimate.
To quantify Türkiye’s 2053 emissions, we assume that Türkiye maintains a LULUCF sink of -70 MtCO2e as indicated in its 4th Biennial Report ‘with measures’ scenario through 2053 (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2019). This means that emissions from other sectors would have to be reduced to 70 MtCO2e in 2053.
Current policy projections
The upper bound of our policies and action emissions projection is based on the growth rates of the ‘with measures’ mitigation scenario taken from Türkiye’s Fourth Biennial Report (BR), submitted in 2019, harmonised to the last historic year (2021) (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2019). This scenario is the same as that provided by Türkiye in its original 2015 INDC submission. Türkiye has only updated historical emissions and not the underlying scenario in its national reporting submitted since the INDC. Türkiye should have submitted its next BR by December 2022, but has not yet done so. So new projections may be available soon, however if Türkiye does not update its NDC BAU, it may also not update this scenario. Türkiye’s historical emissions have been well-below the BAU, however it does have a significant coal pipeline, which could see a faster rate of emissions growth in the future. Harmonising to the last historic year gives a good approximate of the likely ceiling for Türkiye’s emissions.
The lower bound of our policies and action emissions projection uses the historic and projected trend of GDP elasticity to estimate emissions for energy and industry. We use growth rates from the US EPA for the agriculture and waste sectors (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019). While the US EPA estimates are for non-CO2 emissions only, the amount of CO2 emitted by these sectors in small and so we use the growth rates for the sector as a whole.
Global warming potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).