Türkiye

In April 2023, Türkiye submitted the first update of its 2030 NDC target. Türkiye’s previous NDC was its 2015 INDC, which was resubmitted as an NDC in October 2021 when Türkiye finally ratified the Paris Agreement, one of the last countries to do so.

The updated NDC has an unconditional target of reducing GHG emissions including LULUCF in 2030 by 41% below a business-as-usual (BAU) projection (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023). The reference BAU projection of 1175 MtCO2e (incl. LULUCF) in 2030 used in the updated NDC is the same as in its previous INDC and NDC submissions (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023; Republic of Türkiye, 2015, 2021). The updated NDC’s absolute target aims for a 2030 emissions level of 699 MtCO2e (incl. LULUCF), which equates to 750 MtCO2e once the LULUCF sector is excluded. The CAT rates this target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to both required domestic efforts and Türkiye’s fair share.

Türkiye is bidding to host COP31 in 2026, which brings an expectation of ambitious domestic climate action. However, given the weakness of its NDC target for 2030, Türkiye’s bid risks calling attention to its own lack of ambition. If Türkiye is serious about hosting COP31, it should demonstrate its commitment to reduce emissions by strengthening its 2030 target and submitting a 2035 NDC compatible with 1.5°C.

Türkiye has adopted a 2053 net zero target, which the CAT rates as “Poor.” For our full analysis, see the Net Zero tab.

*For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate for Türkiye, please see the Assumptions tab.

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). For assessing targets against the fair share, we consider both a country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

The CAT rates Türkiye’s updated NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when rated against both modelled domestic pathways and against its fair share contribution. Türkiye has one NDC target. It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support or whether its NDC has an international element, so we rate its NDC target against both modelled domestic pathways and fairness metrics.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We rate Türkiye’s updated NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Türkiye is on track to achieve this target based on our emissions estimate for 2030 under current policies, which further highlights the weakness of this target as it will not drive real-world emission reductions.

We rate Türkiye’s updated NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We do not have sufficient information to assess Türkiye’s climate finance contribution.

Under the UNFCCC, Türkiye is an Annex I country and thus not eligible to receive climate finance through the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Our methods do not provide a clear answer for the need for finance for Türkiye. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that Türkiye should receive limited climate finance, if any. Our approach would not expect Türkiye to provide climate finance to other countries.

Further information on how the CAT assesses climate finance can be found here.

In April 2023, Türkiye submitted its first updated 2030 NDC, which increased the unconditional emissions reduction target from a 21% to a 41% reduction from BAU by 2030 including LULUCF (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023). However, the BAU scenario used for this reduction target comes from its 2015 INDC. This scenario assumes a much faster increase in Türkiye’s GHG emissions from its 2012 reference year than what has actually occurred, making the reduction target easier to achieve (Republic of Türkiye, 2015, 2022).

The updated NDC results in a 2030 emissions level of 699 MtCO₂e including LULUCF or 750 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF) Click or tap here to enter text. (Republic of Türkiye, 2019). This updated NDC allows GHG emissions to increase by 33% compared to 2022 levels, excluding LULUCF.

Türkiye is on track to significantly overachieve this target under its current policies, which further highlights the weakness of this target. As it stands, the updated NDC target cannot be considered a serious attempt by Türkiye to reduce its emissions in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C. As a result, the CAT rates this updated NDC target as “did not increase ambition.”

Türkiye needs to set an NDC target that will drive real emission reductions. Ideally, this would be in the form of an emissions limit or reduction from a historical base year. At a minimum, Türkiye could update its BAU to reflect historical developments.

Türkiye has not yet submitted an NDC target for 2035. Please see the 2035 NDC tab for more information.

Comparison Table

Türkiye released its long-term strategy (LTS) at COP29 (İklim Değişikliği Başkanliği [Climate Change Directorate], 2024), which reaffirmed its previously-announced target of reaching net zero emissions by 2053. If Türkiye successfully achieves this target, it would be a commendable contribution to the global effort to combat climate change. However, as the LTS is currently set out, we do not deem it a strong attempt to realise the 2053 goal. We evaluate the target as: "Poor."

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.