Viet Nam

Overall rating: Critically insufficient

Policies and action against fair share: Critically insufficient; 4°C+ World

Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Critically insufficient; 4°C+ World

Unconditional NDC target against fair share: Critically insufficient; 4°C+ World

Climate finance: Not applicable

Net zero target: year
2050; Comprehensiveness rated as
Average

Land use & forestry: Not significant

Target Overview

In 2022 Viet Nam submitted its updated NDC, increasing its unconditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 15.8% below business-as-usual levels (BAU) by 2030 compared to 9% in the previous NDC. Conditional on international support, this target will be further increased to 43.5% below BAU, higher than previous conditional target of 27%. The conditional target is cumulative. GHG emissions reduction from international support alone are 28% from 2030 BAU emissions.

The updated unconditional and conditional targets translate to 863 and 620 MtCO₂e/yr, respectively, in terms of absolute emissions levels for 2030 or 12% and 37% below BAU, excluding the land use and forestry sector.

The updated NDC claims that new targets are aligned to fulfill Viet Nam’s commitments at COP26, but it is not a true progression in scaling up climate action, as it is still aligned with 4ºC of warming and requires no additional effort beyond current policies. Notably, at COP26, Viet Nam committed to reach net zero by 2050 along with additional pledges related to a coal phase-out and methane emission reductions.

In the updated NDC, Viet Nam has transparently presented the financial requirements to achieve its unconditional and conditional targets.

The CAT rates Viet Nam’s targets as “Critically Insufficient”.

VIET NAM - Main climate targets

2030 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	15.8% reduction below BAU in 2030
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	863 MtCO₂e [212% above 2010]
Status	Submitted in November 2022

2030 conditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	43.5% reduction below BAU in 2030
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	620 MtCO₂e [124% above 2010]
Status	Submitted in November 2022

Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target	Net zero by 2050
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF	185 MtCO₂e
Status	Included in the decision document approving the National Climate Change Strategy in July 2022.

CAT rating of targets

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against indicative national emissions from global least-cost pathways that achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal (called modelled domestic pathways).

Viet Nam has put forward two targets in its NDC: one that it will achieve using its own resources (15.8% GHG emissions reduction from BAU) and one that is conditional on international support (43.5% GHG emissions reduction from BAU). We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its borders aligned with a global least cost pathway (modelled domestic pathway).

Conditional NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Critically insufficient

We estimate that Viet Nam’s conditional target would result in an emissions level of 620 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030, which we rate as “Critically Insufficient”. This rating is based on Viet Nam’s modelled domestic pathway for a 1.5°C limit.

The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s conditional target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

With the NDC update, Viet Nam’s emission reductions under its conditional target have strengthened by 17% but are close to two times higher than the 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway (353 MtCO₂e) for 2030. Substantial improvement is needed in this target. It is important that Viet Nam sets a stronger target to plan faster emissions reductions, and not lock itself into a high carbon future.

Unconditional NDC target against fair share: Critically insufficient

We estimate that Viet Nam’s unconditional target would result in an emissions level of 863 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030, which we rate as “Critically Insufficient”. This rating is based on Viet Nam’s fair share contribution at a 1.5°C limit.

The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s unconditional target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Viet Nam’s target is not in line with any interpretation of fairness. If all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

With the NDC update Viet Nam’s emission reductions under its unconditional target have improved by only 4% and are around 2.5 times more than a 1.5˚C compatible faire share target (350 MtCO₂e).

NDC updates

Viet Nam submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC in November 2022 (Viet Nam Government, 2022a). This is the second update provided by Viet Nam: it also provided an update in 2020.

In the updated NDC, Viet Nam increased its unconditional target to represent a 15.8% reduction below BAU in 2030, and a 43.5% reduction with international support.

While numerically stronger, the emissions targets are still “Critically insufficient” and while Viet Nam is on track to achieving its unconditional component with its current policies, it will not drive further climate action. The CAT assessment therefore does not consider Viet Nam’s NDC update to be stronger than its previous submission.

In line with its previous NDC, the updated NDC has transparently provided a sectoral breakdown of targets and policies. Viet Nam has also provided the detailed financial requirements to implement those policies to achieve the targets. Most of these measures are already laid out in the National Climate Change Strategy to 2050 (Viet Nam Government, 2022d).

The updated NDC has also put forward a detailed implementation plan of the targets by improving policies and institutions, creating awareness and community engagement, capacity and technological development, financial mobility and enhanced international cooperation. A framework for monitoring and evaluation of the targets, which was presented in the previous NDC, is now part of revised Law on Environmental Protection 2020 through a new government regulation.

Though measures and implementation in the updated NDC improved on transparency and clarity but with only a minor improvement on ambition.

The BAU pathway in the updated NDC remains unchanged from previous 2020 NDC. The BAU scenario is developed based on “medium economic development” without clearly mentioning if it considers the dip in economic activities during pandemic.

While Viet Nam has made some improvements to the structure of its NDC, it continued with incomplete gas coverage. Emissions of F-gases are negligible in Viet Nam and the updated NDC does not include full greenhouse gas coverage, excluding NF₃, PFCs and SF₆. These were stated as included in the first NDC, however, they are not mentioned in the technical report that underlies the first NDC.

VIET NAM — History of NDC updates	First NDC	2020 NDC update	2022 NDC update
1.5°C compatible
Stronger target	N/A
Economy-wide coverage
Fixed/absolute target

VIET NAM	First NDC (2016)	2020 NDC update	2022 NDC update
Formulation of target in NDC	Unconditional target 8% reduction below BAU in 2030 (excluding industrial process emissions) Conditional target 25% reduction below BAU in 2030 (excluding industrial process emissions)	Unconditional target 9% reduction below BAU in 2030 (including industrial process emissions) Conditional target 27% reduction below BAU in 2030 (including industrial process emissions)	Unconditional target 15.8% reduction below BAU in 2030 (including industrial process emissions) Conditional target 43.5% reduction below BAU in 2030 (including industrial process emissions)
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	Unconditional target 937 MtCO₂e Conditional target 845 MtCO₂e	Unconditional target 903 MtCO₂e Conditional target 748 MtCO₂e	Unconditional target 863 MtCO₂e Conditional target 620 MtCO₂e
Emissions compared to 2010 excl. LULUCF	Unconditional target 238% above 2010 emissions Conditional target 205% above 2010 emissions	Unconditional target 226% above 2010 emissions Conditional target 170% above 2010 emissions	Unconditional target 212% above 2010 emissions Conditional target 124% above 2010 emissions
CAT rating	Overall rating:* Critically insufficient	Unconditional target against fair share Critically insufficient Conditional target against modelled domestic pathways Critically insufficient	Unconditional target against fair share Critically insufficient Conditional target against modelled domestic pathways Critically insufficient
Sector coverage	Excluding industry	Economy-wide	Economy-wide
Separate target for LULUCF	Forest cover target as part of unconditional contribution	Unconditional target: increase LULUCF emissions removal by 9 MtCO₂e above BAU levels. Conditional target: increase LULUCF emissions by 21 MtCO₂e below BAU levels.	Unconditional target: increase LULUCF emissions removal by 33 MtCO₂e above BAU levels and increase forest cover to 42%. Conditional target: increase LULUCF emissions removal by 47 MtCO₂e above BAU levels.
Gas coverage	Six greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂0, HFCs, PFCs, SF₆)	CO₂, CH₄, N₂0, HFCs	Unchanged
Target type	Emissions reduction from BAU	Unchanged	Unchanged

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.
** We have updated these figures to include the latest 2030 BAU estimates to allow for comparability across estimates.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

11 December 2020: Viet Nam did not increase ambition

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

Viet Nam announced a target to achieve net zero by 2050 target during the COP26 World Leaders' Summit in 2021. In July 2022, Viet Nam reiterated its commitment to reach net zero in the decision approving its National Climate Change Strategy, aimed at guiding its planning to achieve net zero by 2050. Viet Nam’s net zero target is conditional on international financial support. The CAT rates Viet Nam’s target as “Average”.

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.