Saudi Arabia

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Summary table

On 3 November 2016, Saudi Arabia ratified the Paris Agreement and its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) became its NDC. The NDC aims to annually abate up to 130 MtCO₂e (132 MtCO₂e in AR4 GWPs) by 2030 through contributions that have co-benefits in diversifying the economy and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2015).

It is however important to note that the NDC target does not refer to a baseline projection, as it is unclear whether to allocate the production of oil to domestic consumption or export, which impacts the economy of the country and its greenhouse projection in opposite ways.

The NDC mentions that Saudi Arabia may choose to adjust its NDC between 2016 and 2020 if the Paris Agreement creates an “abnormal burden” on its economy. The NDC specifically mentions that in a scenario with high oil exports, greenhouse gas emissions would be lower, and the economy would grow faster, compared to a scenario where oil is consumed locally. The target outlined in the NDC is contingent on the high export scenario, and Saudi Arabia reserves the right to adjust its NDC between 2016 and 2020 if the proceeds from oil exports were to decrease.

In a scenario of high exports, Saudi Arabia would achieve its target through measures in energy efficiency, renewable energy, carbon capture and storage, increasing use of gas and methane recovery and flare minimisation. The measures remain unquantified in the NDC.

As Saudi Arabia has not yet communicated the business as usual (BAU) range for its NDC target, we quantified the target based on our estimates of the BAU. The lower end of the BAU range represents extrapolation of Saudi Arabia’s 2005–2010 emissions trend. The upper end of the range represents a baseline projection, assuming no further expansion of renewable and nuclear power generation. We based our scenario on adjusted projections from KAUST (2014) for energy-related emissions, complemented by US EPA (2012) projections for non-CO₂ emissions and extrapolation of the historical trend for other CO₂ emissions from IEA (2017).

Based on this BAU range, we project Saudi Arabia’s NDC emissions level to be around 860–1100 MtCO₂e in 2030. This represents an 11–13% reduction from the estimated BAU range but an increase of approximately 35–72% above 2015 levels, or 416–562% above 1990 levels.