Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia released its 2035 NDC. A detailed analysis of this target is available here. Please note that the information provided below pertains to the 2030 NDC submitted in 2021.

Saudi Arabia submitted an updated NDC on 23 October 2021, increasing the 2030 emissions reduction target from 130 MtCO₂e in the first NDC to 278 MtCO₂e. We interpret the NDC target to be a reduction below a baseline scenario, similar to the previous one, although this is not explicitly mentioned in the document. It is important to note that neither the previous NDC nor the updated one includes a baseline projection to which the emissions reduction target is applied.

The 2021 NDC, similarly to its predecessor, mentions that the reduction target is contingent on international climate action under the Paris Agreement not causing an “abnormal burden” on its economy. The NDC specifically mentions that the emissions reductions are based on a scenario under which hydrocarbon exports continue to provide a ‘robust contribution’ to the Saudi economy.

Under a second scenario, which we understand to be a scenario under which global hydrocarbon exports decline, Saudi Arabia would continue what it calls a ‘sustainable utilisation of hydrocarbons’ domestically. Under this scenario, Saudi Arabia reserves the right to revise its NDC.

Saudi Arabia plans to meet part of its emission reduction targets through the use of a carbon market scheme and Article 6 mechanisms, including for both the 2030 NDC and 2060 net zero targets. However, details on how these mechanisms might be used are either missing or unclear; they present major risks that Saudi Arabia will seek to use carbon credits with questionable integrity as a smokescreen to justify continuing its trajectory of maintaining high levels of domestic emissions.

Saudi Arabia submitted its updated NDC on 23 October 2021, increasing the 2030 emissions reduction target from 130 MtCO₂e in the first NDC to 278 MtCO₂e in the updated one.

The 2021 NDC lists the following mitigation measures:

• Energy efficiency, particularly in the industry, buildings, and transport sectors
• Renewable energy in the power sector, making up 50% of the electricity mix by 2030, and green hydrogen production
• A switch from oil to gas in the electricity sector
• Zero flaring in the oil and gas industry
• Carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS), coupled with blue hydrogen

As Saudi Arabia has not yet communicated the business as usual (BAU) range for its NDC target, we quantified the target based on a BAU scenario developed by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), a Saudi-based organisation. See the Assumptions section for more information regarding the KAPSARC BAU scenario.

The lower end of the BAU range reflects the KAPSARC BAU scenario, excluding land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). For the upper end of the range, we have assumed that LULUCF measures would contribute 200 MtCO₂e of the total 278 MtCO₂e emissions reductions in the NDC. This number is based on the announcements made at the Saudi Green Initiative Forum in 2021. However for the period 2019-2021, the land use and forestry sink stood at just 7 MtCO₂e, with forests covering a mere 0.5% of Saudi Arabia’s total land area in 2023 (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2025; World Bank, 2026).

Based on this BAU range, and due to the uncertainties around the contributions of emissions reductions from land use and forestry, we project Saudi Arabia’s NDC emissions level to be anywhere between 599–828 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF), 17% below / 15% above 2019 levels. We do not consider the last updated NDC target to be an increase in ambition compared to the previous target, as the median of the NDC range remains lower than Saudi Arabia’s emissions trajectory based on current policies.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 04.11.2021: Updated NDC

NDC target compared to modelled domestic pathways

The CAT rating compares country’s NDC targets to its fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also compares NDC targets to indicative national emissions from global least-cost pathways required to achieve the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal (called modelled domestic pathways).

Saudi Arabia has one NDC target. It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support, so for the rating we compare its NDC target to both fairness metrics and modelled domestic pathways.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s NDC target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s NDC target when compared to fair share as “Critically insufficient”. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s NDC target in 2030 is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Since our previous assessment, Saudi Arabia’s NDC target rating has changed from 'Critically insufficient' to 'Highly insufficient' when compared to fair share. Importantly, this adjustment does not indicate any actual improvement in Saudi Arabia’s targets compared to our previous assessment. Rather, this reflects a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, aligning our equity approaches with international environmental law and excluding studies based solely on cost-effectiveness. We also incorporated additional recent studies to capture the latest research in the field.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We evaluate the target as: Poor.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced Saudi Arabia’s net zero target for 2060 at the first Saudi Green Initiative Forum in October 2021 (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2021a). However, the target has yet to be enshrined in law, or in a policy document.

As of September 2025, Saudi Arabia has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

Since its initial announcement in 2021, the Saudi government has not provided any further detailed information on scope, target architecture, or transparency. Saudi Arabia has not yet provided a clear emissions reduction pathway to net zero (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2021c). The target’s emission coverage remains unclear with the CAT currently assuming that only CO₂ emissions are being covered based on scarce available information.

Saudi Arabia intends to reach its net zero target through the Circular Carbon Economy approach, which relies on the use of CCS. The national oil company Saudi Aramco has committed to reaching net zero operational emissions in 2050. However, most oil and gas emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels, not their production. Saudi Arabia and Aramco’s net zero targets do not take into account emissions resulting from oil and gas exports. They also do not consider the economic risks associated with a continued reliance on fossil fuel exports in a net zero world (for further details on oil production, see the “Industry” section).

For the full analysis click here.