Chile

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Historical data

Historical emissions from 1990 to 2013 (using Global Warming Potentials from the IPCC Second Assessment Report) were taken from Chile’s Third National Communication, published in December 2016 (Government of Chile 2016b).

Pledges

The 2020 pledge did not state a reference pathway, but specifically states that it will be a reduction from BAU as projected in 2007. We have therefore calculated Chile’s 2020 pledge using as reference the 2007 BAU scenario from Boston Consulting Group (2013). This pathway closely resembles the 2007 BAU presented by (Searle 2011) on behalf of the Chilean Government in the same context. As the pledge covers emissions including LULUCF, the emissions level resulting from the pledge is first calculated based on BAU emissions including LULUCF. Projected LULUCF emissions (Boston Consulting Group 2013) are then subtracted to arrive at the pledged emissions level excluding LULUCF, which is shown in the graph. The BAU shown in the graph excludes LULUCF.

Both targets presented in Chile’s NDC were quantified based on the GDP assumptions from the GHG Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector (Ministerio de Energía 2017a), where they project an average 3% growth. The current policy projections are based on the same assumptions on GDP growth. Previous CAT analyses used higher GDP growth projections from the MAPS Chile project (Government of Chile 2014), which assumed an average 4.1% GDP growth per year up to 2030.

While the MAPS GDP projections are specifically mentioned in Chile’s NDC submission, we assume that the updated GDP numbers from the Mitigation Plan should be used for quantifying absolute emission levels resulting from the targets. Chile’s NDC intensity targets are very sensitive to the projected GDP growth assumptions. If a slightly higher GDP growth rate is used, the NDC target shifts up (less ambitious, allowing for more emissions) potentially resulting in Chile achieving both its NDC targets with the current policy scenario.

Current policy projections

In previous assessments, the CAT has based its current policy projections on the Energías Renovables No Convencionales (ERNC) scenario from the MAPS Chile project. This scenario was then adjusted to only include currently implemented policies. For this update, we have adjusted our analysis to include the projections from the Mitigation Plan, which is in line with the Energy Plan 2050. We estimate total emissions as the sum of the agriculture, waste and energy sector. The first two sectors are taken from MAPS Chile (Línea Base 2013, PIB medio) (Government of Chile 2014). The base year of the scenario is 2013, and it is based on macroeconomic projections from 2013 (medium case GDP growth) and includes implemented policies up until 2013. The energy sector projections are taken from the Mitigation Plan. Our analysis estimates that by following the current policies pathway presented on the Mitigation Plan, Chile will achieve its 2020 pledge, but not its conditional and unconditional NDC targets.