Chile

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

We rate Chile’s NDC emission reduction targets for 2030 “Highly Insufficient,” an improvement on our previous rating (2017) of “Critically Insufficient.”

The “Highly Insufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Chile’s climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

If the CAT were to rate Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would also rate it “Highly insufficient.”

Most effort sharing approaches lead to similar levels of emissions allowances for Chile. The upper end of the “Insufficient” range is determined by effort sharing approaches focusing on staged emissions reductions. To be in line with the most stringent approaches, which focus on capability, Chile would need even further emissions reductions.

In past assessments, CAT rated Chile “Critically insufficient.” The downward revision of GDP growth rates led to a decrease in the emissions level resulting from the NDC. The improvement of the rating is thus not related to a change of the NDC, but rather the revision of economic growth projections. Because of this link to GDP projections, Chile’s targets remain uncertain.

For further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories click here.