Chile

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Paris Agreement

Chile’s NDC includes two emissions mitigation targets for 2030:

Unconditional: 30% reduction of GHG emissions-intensity of GDP compared to 2007 by 2030 (Government of Chile 2015). With a projected GDP growth of 95% over the period 2007 to 2030 (Ministerio de Energía 2017a), we estimate this option results in emissions levels of 128 MtCO2e by 2030 (148% above 1990 and 38% above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF).
Conditional on international financial contributions in the form of grants: 35–45% reduction of GHG emissions-intensity of GDP compared to 2007 by 2030 (Government of Chile 2015). We estimate this option results in emissions levels of 100–118 MtCO2e by 2030 (95–130% above 1990 and 9–29% above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF).

Both of the GHG emission intensity targets do not include emissions or removals from the forestry sector. In its NDC, Chile proposes separate targets to address only this sector: a) sustainable management and recovery of 100,000 hectares of forest by 2030 with estimated emissions reductions of 0.6 MtCO2e per year from 2030 and b) commitment to afforest 100,000 hectares, with mostly native species, that are estimated to capture between 0.9–1.2 MtCO2e per year from 2030 (Government of Chile 2015). These targets are conditional on the approval of updates to the Native Forest Law and a new Forest Promotion Law, neither of which were in place as of February 2018.

In September 2016, one year after submitting its INDC, Chile became one of the last countries to sign the Paris Agreement.

2020 pledge

Chile has proposed to undertake NAMAs to reach an emissions reduction of 20% below BAU including LULUCF in 2020 (as projected from 2007). We estimate this is an absolute pledged emissions level of 119 MtCO2e in 2020 excluding emissions from LULUCF. This is equivalent to an increase of 131% from 1990 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF.