Norway

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
Commitments with this rating fall well outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
Commitments with this rating fall outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
Commitments with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within the country’s fair share range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement. If all government targets were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are in the most stringent part of its fair share range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are more ambitious than what is considered a fair contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Pledge

The Copenhagen pledge, as well as NDC and long-term target were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (CRF, 2018).

While Norway intends to become a carbon neutral nation in 2030, it is not clear whether this includes sinks from Norway’s LULUCF sector projected to slightly decline in 2030, reaching 21 MtCO2. As a result, the conditional NDC target of carbon neutrality was quantified as 21 MtCO2.

The third biennial report provided further clarity on the definition of a low-emission society by 2050 by stating that the target is to achieve a reduction of the order of 80-95% below 1990 levels (Norwegian Ministry of Climate Change and Environment, 2018).

Current policies

The current policy projections are based on Norway's third Biennial Report (Norwegian Ministry of Climate Change and Environment, 2018). Historical data is based on CRF 2018.

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