We rate Brazil’s NDC for 2025 and 2030 as “Insufficient.” The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Brazil’s climate commitment in 2018 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow Brazil’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means Brazil’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
If the CAT were to rate Brazil’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, Brazil would also be rated “Insufficient.”
For further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories click here.