Brazil

Historical emissions from 1990 to 2022 are taken from Brazil’s National Inventory Report as part of the 1st Biennial Transparency Report (Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2024). We estimated emissions for 2023 using the sectoral growth rates for each sector as reported by the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG) initiative (SEEG, 2024).

LULUCF emissions from 1990 to 2022 are taken directly from Brazil’s National Inventory Report as part of the 1st Biennial Transparency Report (Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2024).

The CAT rating of Brazil’s NDC is based on its 2030 target as communicated in its NDC submitted in October 2023 (Government of Brazil, 2023b). Brazil’s 2030 NDC target covers emissions from all sectors and six gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆).

2030 NDC

Brazil’s 2030 NDC provides an absolute emissions level for 2025 and 2030, including LULUCF, and is reported using AR5 GWP values. The CAT takes the stated values directly from the NDC, namely 1.32 GtCO₂e in 2025 and 1.20 GtCO₂e in 2030.

The CAT presents all targets excluding LULUCF. For this, we take LULUCF emissions for 2030 as reported in the National Climate Plan (“Plano Clima”), estimated to be a sink of 75 MtCO2e by 2030 under the NDC scenario (Government of Brazil, 2026b).

Based on the above, we estimate 2030 NDC emission levels to be at 1,275 MtCO₂e, excluding LULUCF emissions.

2035 NDC

Brazil’s 2035 NDC provides a range of emissions reductions expected for 2035, namely a reduction of 59% to 67% below 2005 levels, which is consistent in absolute terms with an emissions level of 1.05 to 0.85 GtCO₂e. The CAT takes the stated values directly from the NDC.

The CAT presents all targets excluding LULUCF. For this, we take LULUCF emissions for 2035 as reported in the National Climate Plan (“Plano Clima”), estimated to be a sink of between 278 and 284 MtCO₂e by 2035 under the NDC scenario (Government of Brazil, 2026b).

Based on the above, we estimate 2035 NDC emission levels to be between 1,134–1,328 MtCO₂e, excluding LULUCF emissions.

We use projections as reported by the government for consistency and to reflect their expected efforts in the sector. Our NDC estimates are highly dependent on the assumptions of the LULUCF contribution to overall emissions which, based on historical trends, can vary significantly.

For the current policies scenario, we present a range which is calculated as described below.

Lower end of the range:

The CAT takes total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF as reported in the 2024 Global Energy and Climate Outlook (JRC, 2024) which provides emissions levels under ‘current policies’ for five-year intervals including 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035. We interpolate between these years to have a complete time series and then harmonise to the last historical data point (in this case 2023).

Higher end of the range:

The CAT estimates CO₂ and non-CO₂ emissions (excl. LULUCF) in the last historical year (2023) using a similar split as that reported in PRIMAP-hist, leading to a share of about 42% CO₂ and 58% non-CO₂ emissions.

We take total CO₂ emissions projections from the 2024 World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2024b) which are given for 2022, 2023, 2030 and 2035. We interpolate between these years to have a complete time series and then harmonise to the share of CO2 emissions in 2023 (calculated as described above).

We take total non-CO₂ emissions projections from the 2025 report on “Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections & Mitigation” by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA, 2025) which includes emissions projections for 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035. We interpolate between these years to have a complete time series and then harmonise to the share of non-CO₂ emission in 2023 (calculated as described above).

Finally, both CO₂ and non-CO₂ (harmonised) emissions projections are summed up to estimate total emissions (excl. LULUCF).

As of June 2026, Brazil does not have a long-term strategy, but the country’s National Mitigation Strategy and its 2035 NDC articulate the goal of carbon neutrality by 2040 and climate neutrality by 2050.

To calculate the emissions level for these stated targets (excl. LULUCF), we made the following assumptions:

• Assume CO₂ emissions cover the industry, energy, transport and cities sectors; non-CO₂ emissions cover the agriculture and waste sectors. For LULUCF emissions, we assume a share of 93% CO₂ and 7% non-CO₂ (based on inventory data).
• We assume non-LULUCF CO₂ emissions reach zero in 2050 and that LULUCF CO₂ emissions stay constant at 2035 levels.
• We assume the share of LULUCF non-CO₂ stays constant at 2030 levels (calculated assuming a 7% share of LULUCF non-CO₂ emissions, based on shares in historical emissions).
• Net LULUCF emissions were kept at same level as reported for 2035 in the National Climate Plan (“Plano Clima”), a sink of 278–284 MtCO₂e.

The calculations described above lead to emissions (excl. LULUCF) of between 872–914 MtCO₂e in 2040 and 278–284 MtCO₂e in 2050.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to June 2025 used GWP values from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and those completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).