Fair Share
Fair share
We rate Chile’s NDC “Highly Insufficient”. If Chile were to update their NDC target to the higher end of its conditional pledge (45% below 2007 emissions intensity of GDP by 2030), its CAT rating would improve to the “insufficient” category, which means the targets would be at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of contribution from Chile to global mitigation efforts.
The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Chile’s climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Chile has formulated its NDC targets as a reduction of the emissions intensity of GDP – the estimation of absolute emissions thus directly depend on projections of GDP – making the absolute emissions levels from Chile’s targets uncertain. In recent updates we already updated the values based on new GDP data, resulting in a substantial improvement of their target from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient.”
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies1, we would rate Chile “Insufficient.” This indicates that Chile’s current policies in 2030 are not yet consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
However, a rating of Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under planned policies scenario[2] would result in an “Insufficient” CAT rating, indicating that Chile’s planned climate policies in 2030 are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow this approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means that this level of emissions is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.
1| Chile’s current policies scenario includes, in comparison to previous assessments, emissions reductions from the Electromobility Strategy and the retirement of the first eight coal-fired power plants.
2| Chile’s planned policies scenario includes, in comparison to previous assessments, a scenario compatible to the 2050 Energy strategy, emissions reductions from the Electromobility Strategy, the retirement of the first eight coal-fired power plants, and complete coal phase-out in 2040.
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