India

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Summary table

Paris Agreement targets

India ratified the Paris Agreement exactly one year after the submission of its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), on 2 October 2016. Since India did not submit an NDC prior to ratification, the INDC became its first NDC. It includes the following main elements (Government of India, 2015):

To reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 33%–35% by 2030 below 2005 levels;
To increase the share of non-fossil-based energy resources to 40% of installed electric power capacity by 2030, with help of transfer of technology and low-cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF);
To create an additional (cumulative) carbon sink of 2.5–3 GtCO₂e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

India does not specify the coverage and metrics of the emissions intensity target in its NDC.

We estimate that achieving the intensity target would result in an emissions level of 5.3-5.7 GtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF). This is 146-161% above 2010 levels. This is 8-11% lower than the previous estimate before the COVID-19 pandemic, due to lower projected GDP level. The uncertainty range is large, given the uncertainty regarding economic development and the impact of the pandemic and the speed of economic recovery.

We estimate that achieving its 40% non-fossil capacity target would result in an emissions level of around 5 GtCO₂e (127% above 2010 emissions level excluding LULUCF) by 2030. The emissions reduction implied by the NDC non-fossil capacity target are based on developments reflected in CAT’s current policy pathway for India. Existing policies and measures are described in detail in India’s NDC. However, the description of the targets is very brief. India could increase the transparency of its NDC by describing the greenhouse gases, sectoral coverage and metric for the intensity target (e.g. constant or nominal GDP), as well as the way it envisages achieving the non-fossil power capacity target.

Although not stated in the NDC, we assume that the target to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 GtCO₂e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030 is cumulative, representing an average annual carbon sink of 167–200 MtCO₂e over the period 2016–2030. Over half of this target could be achieved by the Green India Mission, which is expected to enhance annual carbon sequestration by about 100 MtCO₂e (Government of India, 2015).

As the non-fossil generation target is conditional on the provision of resources, the CAT has based its rating on the intensity target. The non-fossil generation target would result in lower absolute emissions than the intensity target alone, effectively leading to a larger reduction in intensity than in the NDC target itself.

2020 pledges

In the Copenhagen Accord in 2010, India has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20–25% in 2020 below 2005 levels. This target does not cover emissions from the agricultural sector. The quantification of this pledge covers a range of emissions between 3.3–3.6 GtCO₂e in 2020 (excluding LULUCF). These emissions are 55 to 66% higher than 2010 emissions levels. The emissions level of the target is reduced compared to the estimate before the pandemic (by 9-12%).

Long-term goals

In 2007, then Indian Prime Minister Singh pledged that India’s per capita emissions would never exceed those of the developed world. Meeting this pledge does not require any emissions reductions compared to current policy projections up to 2030. While not shown in the figure, we take this pledge into account in the global pathway to 2100 when calculating the rise in global temperature.