Morocco

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Economy-wide

Our current policy projections indicate that Morocco’s GHG emissions in 2030 will be 153 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF (200% above 2005 levels and 371% above 1990 levels). While current policy projections for 2020 are in line with the NDC, emissions between 2020 and 2030 grow at a faster pace than allowed under the NDC commitment.

In addition to the development of renewable energy, our current policy projections include Morocco’s energy efficiency programmes in the buildings sector, public lighting and the industry sector. Morocco has an objective of reducing its overall energy consumption by 15% by 2030 (Government of Morocco 2019). We note, however, that the industrial energy efficiency programme excludes large energy-consuming industries (Government of Morocco 2016d).

The Moroccan Climate Change Policy (MCCP) coordinates and aligns various sectoral and cross-sectoral national policies against climate change, mainly in the energy, waste, transportation, agriculture and forestry sectors. The MCCP is not additionally considered in the Climate Action Tracker’s current policy projection as the policy in itself does not enforce quantifiable measures or targets.

In 2019, Morocco issued its 2030 National Climate Plan. This strategy confirms the objectives set under the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and sets out new structures and measures for climate governance (Government of Morocco 2019).

Energy supply

Morocco still relies heavily on coal and is expanding its coal-fired power generation, despite minimal coal reserves in the region and, consequently, high dependency on imports (IEA 2018; Le Matin 2016). In December 2018, Morocco commissioned the 1.4 GW Safi ultra-supercritical coal power plant, which some expect could supply around 25% of Morocco’s total electricity in 2019 (Médias 24 2018). Morocco is also in the process of building a coal power plant in the city of Nador. This 1.3 GW plant is expected to be operational in 2023–2024 (Dref 2018).

Power generation needs to be decarbonised by 2050 in order to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal (IPCC 2018). Coal, in particular, needs to be phased out for power generation worldwide by 2040 in pathways that limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C (Yanguas Parra et al. 2019). In Paris Agreement compatible pathways for the Middle East and Africa region, coal-based power generation is reduced by 80% in 2030 compared to 2010 levels, leading to a phase-out by 2034 (Yanguas Parra et al. 2019).

Natural gas is projected to reach 23% of total electricity installed capacity by 2030 in Morocco (Hamane 2016). Global natural gas shares would need to reach around 8% of electricity generation by 2050 and be coupled with carbon capture technologies to be compatible with the Paris Agreement (IPCC 2018). Fast renewable uptake is paramount for Morocco’s alignment with long-term temperature goals.

At the core of Morocco’s current emissions reduction efforts stands the government’s target to extend the share of renewable electricity capacity to 42% by 2020 and to 52% by 2030 (Government of Morocco 2016c). In 2018, Morocco’s share of renewable electricity capacity had reached 34% (ONEE 2018).

Under the Morocco Solar Plan, Morocco plans to extend installed solar power capacity (PV and CSP) to 2 GW by 2020, up from 740 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2018 (IRENA 2019). Contrary to the CAT assessment in 2016, which displayed an uncertainty range for the implementation of the Morocco Solar Plan, our current policy projection assumes the full implementation of Morocco Solar Plan due to recent progress to meet the 2020 capacity targets, as explained below.

After recent administrative restructuring, the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN) has taken over the lead for the development of all renewable energy technologies in Morocco from the Moroccan Electricity and Water Utility Company (ONEE). This includes the ongoing development of ONEE’s solar power programme for 500 MW by 2020, including the three large projects Noor-Tafilalet (120 MW), Noor-Atlas (200 MW) and Noor Argana (100 MW). With the projects already led by MASEN, the final phase of the Noor Ouarzazate complex (70 MW out of 580 MW) and the Noor Laayoune (80 MW) and Noor Boujdour (20 MW) projects were commissioned in 2018 (MASEN 2018). Finally, MASEN announced in May 2019 they had awarded the contract for the 800 MW Noor Midelt project, for which completion is expected by 2022 (Bellini 2019). In July of the same year, MASEN also opened the tender for the 230 MW Noor Midelt II project (Reuters 2019).

Owing to these recent developments, it is assumed that the Morocco Solar Plan’s capacity extension targets until 2020 will be fully implemented. Some of the latest project developments already address capacity extension plans for the post-2020 period to achieve the 2030 capacity extension target. In our CAT assessment we have not quantified these impacts as the developments and successful implementation for the post-2020 period are relatively more uncertain.

The Morocco Integrated Wind Energy Program aims to increase the capacity of national wind farms from close to 800 MW in 2015 to 2 GW by 2020 (Government of Morocco, 2016a). At the end of 2018, Morocco had 1.2 GW of installed wind capacity (IRENA 2019). This programme is also assumed to be part of the current policy projections since its implementation is on track.

The Moroccan Electricity and Water Utility Company (ONEE) awarded a tender bid of 850 MW in 2015 that includes five projects: 150 MW in Tangiers, 300 MW in Tiskrad, 200 MW in Jbel Lahdid, 100 MW near Boujdour, and 100 MW at Midelt, all beginning operation between 2017 and 2020 (Oxford Business Group 2016).

As an extension of the Morocco Hydroelectric Plan, Morocco plans to install an additional hydroelectric capacity of 775 MW by 2020, in addition to the 1.3 GW already installed in 2010. As of 2018, Morocco had a total of close to 1.8 GW in hydro-electric capacity (IRENA 2019). Two projects of 15 MW of small hydropower power in Morocco’s Middle Atlas region received approval in 2018 (HydroWorld 2018). Three plants with a total potential capacity of around 300 MW are further assumed to be developed until 2020, with El Menzel and Station de Transfert d’Energie par Pompage (STEP) Abdelmoumen already under construction. ONEE recently identified numerous sites suitable for locating small or micro hydropower plants (~100 kW to 1,500 kW), with a total potential capacity of around 300 MW (Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy 2016).

Transport

Tramways in Rabat and Casablanca are currently being extended by 10km by 2020 and 45km by 2025, respectively. Similar extensions are planned for the cities of Marrakech, Fez, Tangier and Agadir, although actual implementation has not been started.

In November 2018, Morocco was the first African country to commission a high-speed train line connecting the capital Rabat to Tangier and Casablanca (AFD 2018).

Morocco has taken small steps to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). It has installed first charging stations on the highway between Tangier and Agadir. There are however no national targets for the development of electric mobility and the number of EVs in Morocco is still low (Ouchagour 2019).