CAT 2035 Climate Target Update Tracker

The Climate Action Tracker also provided a commentary on recent announcements around Japan’s forthcoming 2035 NDC target and New Zealand’s independent Climate Change Commission (CCC) proposed 2035 NDC target.

*For developed countries this needs to be supplemented by significant financial and other support for developing countries to constitute an equitable contribution to the 1.5°C limit. For many developing countries this is only achievable by receiving significant financial and other support.

About the CAT Climate Target Update Tracker

Governments already knew at the time the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015 that the level of emissions cuts proposed in their national targets (or nationally determined contributions (NDCs)) would be insufficient to limit warming to 1.5˚C and thus agreed to update those targets. The first Global Stock Take under the Paris Agreement agreed at COP28 in 2023 confirmed that the collective effect of NDCs is insufficient and called on all Parties to submit revised NDCs aligned with the 1.5˚C goal of the Paris Agreement. Increased 1.5˚C aligned ambition is needed for 2030 NDCs as well as targets to be submitted for 2035. Governments are expected to submit their new NDCs (also known as NDCs 3.0) by early 2025, with upgraded targets for 2030 and new targets for 2035.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is tracking these new NDC targets and, for the 40 countries we analyse, will provide a detailed analysis of the new NDC, and how much it is aligned to the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries that are not part of the 40 CAT countries and that submit new NDC targets including for 2035 will be listed, but not analysed.

Given that it is crucial for countries to increase action pre-2030 as well as set 1.5 ̊C aligned 2035 targets, the CAT will label a country's new NDC as "1.5 ̊C compatible against MDPs":

• if the 2030 and the 2035 target are both below the 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway (MDP) or
• if the 2030 target lies close to our 1.5°C MDP and the 2035 target lies below 1.5°C MDP and the 2035 target can be reasonably be achieved from the 2030 target

For developing countries, we are assessing their conditional 2035 targets against 1.5 ̊C MDPs.

* This category includes countries whose NDC updates did not increase ambition at all, increased by only a marginal amount or may appear stronger on paper, but will not drive additional reductions as current policies are already below the targeted level.

*** NOTE: Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement on 11 October 2021 and submitted its 2015 INDC target to the UNFCCC NDC registry at that time. We do not consider this to be an updated NDC submission and it is not reflected in our numbers. Turkey should submit an updated NDC target as soon as possible.