EU

Historical emissions between 1990 and 2024 are based on the national inventory submitted by the EU to the UNFCCC (European Environment Agency, 2026).

Since our last update in November 2024, the CAT has not changed its methodology for quantifying the EU’s 2030 absolute emissions target. Our current approach aligns with the EEA’s quantification of the target (European Environment Agency, 2023). Note that the EEA’s NDC quantification includes international aviation, whereas the CAT excludes it.

• We take the EU’s 1990 emissions including LULUCF, excluding indirect CO2 emissions and emissions from international aviation, and apply a 55% reduction to this value (European Environment Agency, 2024).
• Then we add the difference between the sink (217 MtCO₂e) in 1990 and the sink of 225 MtCO₂e that the EU is allowed to use towards achieving its NDC target as outlined in the European Climate Law.
• As the CAT excludes LULUCF from absolute target values, we then remove the 225 MtCO₂e sink.

The 2035 NDC target is quantified in an equivalent way, using the percentage reduction range given in the 2035 NDC (66.25–72.5%). Two values are used for the LULUCF sink, 313 MtCO₂e, from the Commission’s 2040 target impact assessment, and 210 MtCO₂e, from the EEA’s with existing measures (WEM) scenario. Using these values provides the final range for the quantified 2035 NDC target. However these LULUCF projections from the impact assessment have not been formally adopted into the 2040 target law.

While the LULUCF Regulation, passed in April 2023, adopts an EU-wide LULUCF sink of 310 MtCO₂e, the EU has made clear that this additional sink capacity will help it exceed its 55% target and not count towards achieving it (European Parliament, 2022; European Parliament & Council of the European Union, 2023b). As such, we do not exclude this additional LULUCF capacity from our quantification of the target.

CO₂ emissions from intra-EU flights, (as well as those departing flights to Switzerland and the United Kingdom) fall within the scope of the NDC as they are covered under the EU ETS. However, we do not consider these emissions to be part of the target quantification itself (as described above), but relevant to assessing compliance with it. As such, intra-EU CO₂ aviation is not included in our NDC target calculations.

The assessment of the EU’s policy projections reflects both policies and measures implemented at the national level (the top end of our range), as well as these adopted at the EU level but not yet transposed by the Member States (the bottom end of our range).

To reflect policies adopted at the national level, we use the EEA’s compilation of national projections prepared by Member States in 2025 (EEA, 2025c). We apply the growth rate from the ‘with existing measures’ (WEM) scenario for total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF and excl. int. aviation) in 2023.

To calculate the bottom end of the range, we replace estimates for power CO2 emissions in the States Policies (STEPS) projections from the World Energy Outlook (WEO) with those from the Announced Pledges (APS) to account for the implementation of the 42.5% RE share in final gross consumption in the Fit for 55 package. From the Fit for 55 modelled projections, we take the MIX scenario which better reflects the current policies in place.

We then take the growth rate of this revised projection for total CO₂ emissions from WEO and apply that to total GHG emission from the energy sector in 2022 and extend out to 2035. Non-CO₂ emissions represent about 3% of energy sector emissions, so we think WEO is a good proxy for the entire sector. For all other sectors, we use sector-specific growth rates from EEA’s 2025 WEM scenario (EEA, 2025c) to extend each sector out to 2035 individually.

We make an adjustment to the upper and lower ranges of the current policy projects to reflect the recently watered down 2025 target of the CO₂ standard for new vehicles regulation, which is calculated by the ICCT to add between 26–51 MtCO₂ between 2025 and 2050 (ICCT, 2025a). We break this down to get annual contributions and add the additional emission to each year of the policy projections. We also adjust for the weakening of the 2035 car CO₂ reduction target from 100% to 90%, by splitting estimated additional lifetime emissions over the years 2030 to 2050 (Transport & Environment, 2026b).

Note: Our data download includes projections until 2035; however, our graphics display the data until 2030 only.

We provide a range of projections for the EU’s planned policies.

To develop a planned policies projection for the bottom of the range (i.e. maximum emission reductions), we modified our energy sector estimate to take into account the 45% indicative RE target, up from the 42.5% included in our current policy projections’ lower bound. For the other sectors, we use sector-specific growth rates from EEA’s 2025 ‘with additional measures’ (WAM) scenario to extend each sector out to 2030 individually (EEA, 2025c).

To devise the modified energy sector estimate, we took the energy emissions projections from the lower range of our current policy projection and multiplied it by the ratio between projected total energy emissions in 2030 with a 42.5% RE binding target compared to a 45% RE indicative target. We interpolated the data between total energy emissions in 2022 to this adjusted value for 2030 to complete the timeseries.

To calculate the ratio indicated above, we started with the 2030 emissions estimates provided by the European Commission in its initial modelling of the higher emissions reduction goal published in 2021 (European Commission, 2021). We select the MIX scenario for the 2030 domestic energy related CO₂ emissions (i.e. excluding international aviation and shipping). This modelling assumed a renewable energy share of 40% and when corrected to remove international bunkers, assumes a final energy consumption of 751 Mtoe.

We calculated the emissions intensity for energy CO₂ emissions and then adjusted this figure to reflect the higher renewable energy share adopted by the EU (42.5% and 45%). To calculate energy CO₂ emissions, we used this revised emissions intensity value and the Energy Efficiency Directive’s final energy consumption target of 11.7% below the 2020 EU Reference scenario, which we calculate to be 726 MtCO₂e, excluding international aviation in 2030.

We used the 2021 ratio between energy CO₂ and all gases to estimate total emissions in 2030. For the other value in the ratio, we applied the same methods as indicated earlier but used the indicative additional target included in the Renewable Energy Directive of 2.5% (or 45% share total).

To develop a planned policies projection for the upper end of the range (i.e. minimal emission reductions), we take the projected GHG emissions under the S2 scenario from the 2040 target communication impact assessment by the European Commission and remove the influence of international aviation. In the EU’s Fit for 55 modelling scenarios, international aviation is included in the final energy consumption and GHG emissions (European Commission, 2021). To omit it, we subtract the international aviation energy consumption and GHG emissions from the totals. The previous CAT assessment used the S3 scenario which reflected a 90–95% 2040 target. however, given the recent backsliding from the EU and its decision to opt for an 85% domestic target by 2040, we switch scenarios to S2.

We take the EU’s modelled 2040 target from the S2 scenario presented in its impact assessment (European Commission, 2024c). We substitute the emissions from LULUCF and also excluding indirect CO₂ emissions and emissions from international aviation. We exclude the LULUCF emissions but add in the planned assumptions for engineered carbon removals which include Direct Air Carbon Capture (DACCs) and Bioenergy Carbon Capture (BECCs). Regardless of scenario industrial removals are set at 75 MtCO₂e.

This results in an emission reduction of 79–83% GHG emission reduction from 1990 levels. We then apply the range of LULUCF assumptions (213 and 374 MtCO₂e) to determine the resulting emission reductions percentages from 1990. When including the contributions from international credits and LULUCF, the target amounts to 89% reduction below 1990s.

In December 2018, the European Commission published its assessment of the climate neutrality goal by 2050 for the EU28 (European Commission, 2018a, 2018c, 2018b). In 2024, as part of the EU’s 2040 target Impact Assessment (European Commission, 2024c), new data was made available on the emission projections to 2050. In 2025, the Commission opted for a compromised and weaker target. While this is not exactly reflected in the scenarios analysed in the impact assessment, we take the closest option, S2 scenario. Currently, assumptions on LULUCF have not yet been made clear, so we assume the assumptions put forth in the impact assessment are maintained.

We take the GHG emissions in 2050 (excluding LULUCF) and add in the assumed industrial carbon removals from DACCs and BECCs from the 2040 Target Impact Assessment. We provide a single projection and not a range based on the S2 scenario in the 2040 target impact assessment. This approach reflects what the EU Commission has said it will pursue.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all figures and time series.