India

Historical emissions are taken from the PRIMAP data for the period 1990-2024 (Gütschow et al., 2025).

2025 estimates

We estimate emissions in 2025 using a gas-by-gas approach. For CO₂ emissions, we use the growth rates from the Global Carbon Budget estimates for India (Global Carbon Budget, 2025). For CH₄, N₂O and F-gases emissions, we use the five-year historical trend to estimate those emissions.

LULUCF

LULUCF emissions are taken directly from India’s fourth Biennial Update Report (until 2019) and First Biennial Transparency Report (2020-2022) (Government of India, 2024, 2025). LULUCF emissions in the fourth Biennial Update Report are presented using global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s second assessment report. We have not converted these into AR5 values as the contribution from non-CO₂ gases is negligible.

We estimate India’s emissions levels corresponding to its 2030 and 2035 targets using a common methodology.

2030 and 2035 target

Emissions intensity target - Unconditional Target

Historical GDP data for 1990-2024 is taken from Reserve Bank of India. The GDP data for 2025-2035 is extended using the IMF GDP projection growth rate for the same period (IMF, 2025; Reserve Bank of India, 2024).

First, we calculate India’s 2005 emissions intensity by dividing historical GHG emissions in 2005 by GDP in the same year. We then apply the percentage reduction in emissions intensity specified in the relevant NDC to derive the target emissions intensity for 2030 and 2035. Finally, we multiply the estimated emissions intensity for each target year by the corresponding projected GDP value to obtain an implied absolute emissions level.

For 2030, applying the government’s 45% reduction in emissions intensity from the 2005 level results in an estimated unconditional target of approximately 4.8 GtCO₂e. The 2035 target is estimated using the same approach, applying the emissions-intensity reduction of 47% to the 2005 level and multiplying the resulting intensity by projected GDP in 2035.

As India has a separate target to enhance its carbon sink, we assume that LULUCF has been excluded from its emissions intensity target. It has not provided a historical estimate for LULUCF for 2005 in its GHG inventory.

Non-fossil installed capacity target - Conditional Target

The emissions levels associated with the non-fossil installed-capacity targets for 2030 and 2035 are estimated relative to the current-policy pathway described below. Both the IEA and the National Generation Adequacy Plan already project non-fossil capacity above the 2030 and 2035 NDC threshold; the capacity targets cannot be translated directly into additional mitigation relative to the current-policy scenario.

For each target year, we use the generation factor of the underlying scenario of current policy pathways to calculate the extent of non-fossil generation and then subtract that from total generation to derive the new level of fossil generation. We use the emissions factor of the underlying scenario to determine the level of emissions and then harmonise the anticipated higher emissions to our current policy scenario.

The additional fossil generation is converted into emissions using the emissions factor of the underlying scenario. The resulting emissions pathway is then harmonised with the current-policy scenario to estimate the emissions level associated with the 2030 and 2035 non-fossil capacity targets

CO₂ emissions

We quantify a range of CO₂ emissions projections under current policies.

Lower end of the scenario range: The lower end of the Current Policy Pathway is based on IEA data. We use the growth rates from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO 2025) Current Policies Scenario (CPS) for India’s CO₂ emissions and harmonised with the historical emissions of CO₂ (IEA, 2025d). This scenario includes the non-fossil capacity addition target of 68% from national Electricity Plan 2023.

The WEO 2025 extended dataset reports 2024 as the last historical year and provides projections only for selected benchmark years, including 2035. However, total fossil electricity generation shows some marginal increase and emissions in the CPS is approximately unchanged between 2024 and 2035, making it difficult to identify an accurate 2030 power sector emissions level, which is important for 2030 NDC target calculation. We therefore extracted the 2025-2030 generation data under CPS as presented in Figure 3.2 of the WEO 2025 report to construct a more representative current-policy power emissions trajectory by using the constant emissions factor of 2024 for coal and gas. The power sector emissions between 2031-2034 from coal and gas are derived by doing a linear interpolation between 2030 and 2035 to remain consistent with 2035 emissions as provided in the WEO 2025 extended data. Emissions from oil-based generation are derived using linear interpolation between 2025 and 2035, due to its residual role in the emissions trajectory. As a result, under this scenario, power sector emissions peak in 2030.

The IEA’s CO₂ emissions estimate now includes industry process emissions and thus is a good proxy for all of India’s CO₂ emissions. CO₂ emissions from agriculture in India is less than 1%, hence no separate projection has been made.

Upper end of the scenario range: The upper end of Current Policy Pathway is particularly developed to capture the power sector emissions from the most recent national generation projection using the National Generation Adequacy Plan 2025-26 to 2035-36.

Historical power generation by source and associated emissions are taken from NITI Aayog (NITI Aayog, 2026a). For the period 2030 and 2035, we use electricity-generation projections from the National Generation Adequacy Plan 2025-26 to 2035-36. Those are then converted into emissions using the five-year average coal and gas emissions factor reported by the Central Electricity Authority for 2020-21 to 2024-25 (CEA, 2025).

We do not construct annual emissions estimates directly from the projected generation data from 2026 onward, as combining the two datasets would produce an artificial decline between 2025 and 2026. This discontinuity results from both the change in electricity-generation data source and the use of a five-year average emissions factor from 2026 onward, compared with the relatively high observed coal emissions intensity in 2025.

We therefore retain the historical emissions estimate for 2025, calculate emissions directly for 2030 and 2035 using the five-year average emissions factor, and linearly interpolate emissions for the intervening years. This avoids introducing a spurious short-term decline and better reflects uncertainty in the underlying data, rather than implying an unsupported level of annual precision. Power sector emissions under this scenario show a continuous increase until 2035.

Then we integrate these power sector emissions into the WEO 2025 CPS scenario for all energy CO₂ emissions as follows:

We begin by extracting the CO₂ emissions projections for all energy from the WEO2025 dataset and then remove the portion attributed to the power sector. This gives us the non-power sector emissions. Next, we replace the WEO power sector CO₂ projections with those calculated based on the National Generation Adequacy Plan. The adjusted power sector emissions are then added back to the non-power sector emissions, resulting in a new all energy CO₂ emissions projection. From this combined trajectory, we derive the annual growth rate, which is then applied to the historical 2025 total CO₂ emissions data point to extrapolate emissions until 2035.

Other gases

We use the US EPA non-CO₂ emissions projection growth rates for the CH4, N20 and F-gases until 2035 and harmonise these to the latest historical year (EPA, 2025).

Note: Our data download includes projections until 2035; however, our graphics display the data until 2030 only.

We estimate India’s emissions in 2070 consistent with its net zero target for the purpose of our global temperature estimate.

India’s 2030 NDC includes a target to create an additional cumulative carbon sink of 2.5-3 GtCO₂ by 2030, but does not specify a base year. We assume that India achieves the upper end of the target, equivalent to 3 GtCO₂, and use 2016 as the base year, consistent with the reference year used for other indicators in the 2030 NDC. Assuming that the additional sink is accumulated evenly over 2016-2030 gives an average annual additional sink of approximately 214 MtCO₂. We add this to India’s estimated net LULUCF sink of 308 MtCO₂ in 2016, resulting in an estimated annual sink of 522 MtCO₂.

India’s 2035 NDC increases the additional cumulative carbon-sink target to 3.4-4 GtCO₂ by 2035, relative to a 2005 base year. We assume that India achieves the upper end of this target, equivalent to 4 GtCO₂. Distributing this additional sink evenly over 2005–2035 gives an average annual additional sink of approximately 133 MtCO₂. We add this to India’s estimated net LULUCF sink of 206 MtCO₂ in 2005 (as presented in its First Biennial Transperancy Report), resulting in an estimated annual sink of 339 MtCO₂. We assume that this represents the level of residual emissions of India’s 2070 net-zero target.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series, unless otherwise stated. Assessments completed prior to June 2025 used GWP values from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and those completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).