India

We evaluate the net zero target as: Poor.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a net zero by 2070 target at COP26 in 2021 (Ministry of External Affairs, 2021). India submitted its first Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LT-LEDS) the following year at COP27.

In December 2022, a “net zero emissions" bill was introduced in the upper house of the Indian parliament to provide a framework for achieving net zero emissions by the year 2070 (Rajya Sabha, 2022). While converting the net zero target into legislation is a significant step, the bill has not advanced through the legislation process in 2023 and given it is a private member's bill rather than a public bill, its likelihood of approval in parliament is relatively low.

In the LT-LEDS, India outlines sector-specific action areas, targeting the power, industry, transport, building, and urban sectors (Government of India, 2022a). But the LT-LEDS does not provide sufficiently clear policy guidance on how the government intends to achieve net zero beyond its current policies and programmes.

It does not present any emissions pathways, nor does it show to what extent the policies and measures discussed in the LT-LEDS will translate into the required emissions reductions by 2070. The LT-LEDS also does not clarify the scope of the target (i.e. whether it applies to CO₂ only or all GHG emissions), nor does it provide transparent information on the extent of its intended use of CCUS or other carbon dioxide removal technologies to achieve the net zero target. Coal continues to play an important role in India’s long-term strategy for energy supply for the grid stabilisation, supply to industry and for energy security.

India’s net zero target performs poorly in terms of its scope, target architecture and transparency and there is significant room for improvement. In particular, India could clarify the emissions scope of the target, better quantify its mitigation measures and pathways, develop a target review process and provide information on the extent of its intended use of carbon dioxide removal technologies.

Scope

• Target year – India aims to reach net zero by 2070 (Government of India, 2022a).
• Emissions coverage – The target covers all key sectors of the economy. However, it is unclear if the target covers all GHGs since this is not explicitly discussed in the LT-LEDS (Government of India, 2022a). At COP26, Prime Minister Modi referred to “achiev[ing] the target of net zero” without specifying whether this covers all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or CO₂ emissions only (Ministry of External Affairs, 2021). India’s NDC update also only makes reference to “net-zero by 2070” without specifying gas coverage (Government of India, 2022b).
• International aviation and shipping –India makes a brief reference to the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) carbon offsetting scheme when discussing its current policies in its LT-LEDS. However, the rest of the document only refers to domestic aviation and shipping. We assume that the net zero target only covers the domestic sectors, but India could be clearer on this point.
• Reductions or removals outside of own borders – India does not explicitly provide any information on its intention to use international emissions reduction credits to meet its net zero target, however we consider this unlikely to happen.

Target architecture

• Legal status – Prime Minister Modi announced India's net zero target at COP26 (Ministry of External Affairs, 2021). India submitted its long-term strategy to support its net zero target in November 2022 (Government of India, 2022a). Reference was also made to the target in its August 2022 update of its NDC (Government of India, 2022b). A private member’s bill on net zero emissions was introduced in the upper house of the Indian parliament in 2022 to provide a framework for attaining net zero by 2070, however it has not advanced through the legislative process (Rajya Sabha, 2022).
• Separate reduction & removal targets – In its LT-LEDS, India commits to enhancing its forest area through restoration, conservation, and management of forest cover. However, it did not modify its forestry sector sink target in its NDC update, that target remains: to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 GtCO₂e by 2030 (Government of India, 2022b). It is unclear how India envisages the forestry sector’s contribution to achieving its 2070 net zero target. No additional policy nor programme for the forestry sector has been discussed beyond current measures.
• Review process – India has not provided any information on a review cycle or mechanism for its net zero and intermediate targets.

Transparency

• Carbon dioxide removal – According to its LT-LEDS, India intends to explore carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to facilitate the process of becoming net zero. However, CDR deployment is contingent upon international support, in terms of technology, finance and capacity development. It remains uncertain as to what extent the government intends to rely on these technologies to achieve net zero (Government of India, 2022a).
• Comprehensive planning – India provides a breakdown of initiatives by sector in its LT-LEDS, but these do not go beyond current policies and the general direction for its long-term plans is extremely limited. Overall, the level of information in the LT-LEDS falls short of setting interim targets towards the broader goal of achieving net zero.
  Other key omissions in the strategy are: clear emissions and sector development pathways to net zero; the expected dependence on CDR technologies and the mitigation potential of the measures beyond 2030.
  India considers the adoption of CCUS to be inevitable in the long-term for certain sectors, but the scale of deployment depends on overcoming technological, economic, and political barriers. According to the LT-LEDS, CCUS is not a viable technology option for retrofitting existing thermal power plants as it is still not cost-effective for India (Government of India, 2022a). Yet, in its latest power sector plan, NEP2023, India does consider retrofitting of the existing coal plants with CCS.
• Clarity on fairness of target – In the LT-LEDS, the government argues that its net zero target is fair, given India’s low historical contribution to global GHG emissions. India also states that developed countries should reach net zero emissions earlier than developing nations (before 2050) on the basis of global emissions equity and justice, and that they should provide financial and technical support for developing nations to accelerate their progress towards net zero. Yet, India does not provide any explanation or emissions pathway to demonstrate that its target is a fair contribution to the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The Climate Action Tracker has defined the following good practice for all ten key elements of net zero targets. Countries can refer to this good practice to design or enhance their net zero targets.