Türkiye

Historical emissions for 1990–2024 are taken from Türkiye’s latest National Inventory Report, submitted to the UNFCCC in 2026 (Republic of Türkiye, 2026).

2030 NDC target

The updated 2030 NDC submitted in 2023 continues to use the same BAU scenario, including LULUCF, as the first NDC and INDC (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023). The CAT excludes LULUCF from its calculations. Since the updated NDC does not provide projections for LULUCF, we assume that the LULUCF sink is the same as what is reported in Türkiye’s 5th Biennial Report “With measures” scenario, which corresponded to the mitigation scenario from Türkiye’s first NDC (2021) (Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2023). We convert the BAU from GWP AR4 to AR5 using the gas-by-gas breakdown provided in Türkiye’s First Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1). We calculated the new 41% reduction target excluding LULUCF using these values.

2035 NDC target

Türkiye has committed to reducing emissions by 466 MtCO₂e below a BAU emissions level of 1,109 MtCO₂e, thus limiting emissions to 643 MtCO₂e in 2035 (including LULUCF).

The CAT excludes LULUCF emissions for its NDC target assessment. In its 2035 NDC, Türkiye does not communicate a separate target for LULUCF in 2035 nor has it published detailed projections for that sector. To remove LULUCF emissions from the target value, we assume that LULUCF emissions from 2030 remain constant to 2035 and apply the estimate published by the government in Türkiye’s First Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1) for LULUCF emissions in 2030.

The BTR1 estimates that LULUCF will contribute -70 MtCO₂e in 2030 using AR4 GWPs. We convert this to AR5 GWP, resulting in a LULUCF emissions level of -51 MtCO₂e in 2030. Then we remove the LULUCF emissions from the initial 2035 target, resulting in an emissions level of 694 MtCO₂e in 2035 (excl. LULUCF).

In the assessment from 2023, we built our current policy projections that relied heavily on the “With Measures” (WM) scenario developed by Türkiye in its 2015 INDC. In its recently submitted First Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1), Türkiye includes a new version of this WM scenario with updated projections, but acknowledges that the mitigation policies and measures used have in fact not changed since the first NDC and INDC (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2024). Türkiye is reportedly working on updating the WM scenario and is expected to share new projections in its upcoming 9th National Communication and Second Biennial Transparency Report. We may revisit the use of the WM scenario in future assessments once the updated projections become available.

To reflect uncertainty around the evolution of emissions under current policies, we construct a range for Türkiye's current policy projections using two sources:

For the upper bound of our current policy projections (CPP max), we take the Reference Scenario from the Istanbul Policy Centre (IPC)’s report “Turkey’s Decarbonization Roadmap: Towards Net Zero by 2053” (Istanbul Policy Centre, 2025). The scenario provides estimates of emissions from the electricity, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, and waste sectors, along with estimates of emissions from F-gases, from 2025 to 2053. The Reference Scenario shows how energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions would evolve if the economy's current trajectory were to continue until 2053, without any additional intervention in the economy or ambitious climate policies to reduce emissions to net zero (Istanbul Policy Centre, 2025). This assumes that important climate policy transformations, such as the transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles, and electrification in industry and buildings, will continue at their average rate in recent years under current policies and economic structures.

By summing the estimates for the electricity, transport, and buildings sectors and harmonising to historical energy sector emissions, we derive projections for the energy sector. For the other sectors, we harmonise to the latest historical year and use the growth rates from the Reference Scenario to create projections for each sector. By summing our projections for all these sectors together, we derive the upper bound of our CPP.

For the lower bound of our current policies projections (CPP min), we use total emissions projections from the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2025, produced by the Joint Research Centre of the European Union. We take a gas-by-gas approach, deriving growth rates for CO₂, CH₄, N₂0, and F-gases, then harmonising these projections to historical data and summing them together to create a lower bound estimate for Türkiye’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

To quantify Türkiye’s 2053 emissions, we assume that Türkiye maintains a LULUCF sink of -70 MtCO₂ (AR4) in 2030 as indicated in its 5th Biennial Report “With Measures” scenario through 2053 (Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2023). Using the gas-by-gas breakdown of emissions expected in 2030 provided by the BR5, we then convert the LULUCF sink to GWP AR5, resulting in -51 MtCO₂ in 2030. This means that emissions from all other sectors would need to be reduced to 51 MtCO₂ in 2053. As Türkiye’s LTS provides no further clarity on how much of a carbon sink LULUCF is expected to be past 2030, we continue to use this method.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to June 2025 used GWP values from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and those completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment report.