Brazil

At COP29 in November 2024 the Brazilian government submitted its second NDC, which includes a target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 59–67% below 2005 levels by 2035. This target covers all sectors and all gases. According to the latest national inventory data for 2005, this is consistent with an emissions level of 850–1,050 MtCO₂e in 2035 (in AR5 GWPs, incl. LULUCF) (Government of Brazil, 2024a).

The 2035 NDC submission did not mention, let alone update, its 2030 target. A failure to substantially increase the ambition and implementation of its 2030 target would mean Brazil's contribution to limiting peak global warming to 1.5°C continues to be insufficient. More substantial and rapid emissions reduction targets will be required elsewhere, likely leading to a multi-decadal, high overshoot of the 1.5°C limit, even if followed by strong 2035 targets.

The Climate Action Tracker evaluates NDC targets excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), which translates to emission levels of 1,275 MtCO₂e in 2030 and between 1,134–1,328 MtCO₂e in 2035 (see the Assumptions section for details on how this is estimated).

In this latest submission, Brazil communicated its intention to use Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, allowing the international sale of emissions reductions within its 2035 target range of 59–67% below 2005 levels. This represents a risk for Brazil, as selling emission reductions that are relatively inexpensive or would have occurred anyway leaves Brazil with fewer and more costly options to increase domestic mitigation ambition in the future.

Finance generated through the purchase of carbon credits (ITMOs) under Article 6 should not be counted as climate finance. ITMO transactions are designed to help the buying country achieve its targets, while the selling country (in this case, Brazil) must make a corresponding adjustment that effectively makes the achievement of its own target more difficult.

The CAT rates Brazil’s 2030 target as “Insufficient” compared to its fair share and as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. For a detailed analysis of Brazil’s 2035 NDC submission, please click here.

Brazil’s NDC includes a goal to reach climate neutrality by 2050 (for all GHGs) but it has not yet submitted a Long-term Strategy (LTS). The recently-published National Mitigation Strategy refers to the climate neutrality goal by 2050, as well as a carbon neutrality by 2040 (for CO₂ only). The strategy includes the needed sectoral contributions for 2030 and 2035 to achieve these targets (Government of Brazil, 2026a).

* Using Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 9.12.2020: Brazil submitted an updated NDC to the UNFCCC
• 5.12.2023: Brazil re-communicates its NDC to the UNFCCC
• 13.11.2024: Brazil submitted its second NDC to the UNFCCC

2030 NDC target

Brazil ratified the Paris Agreement back in 2016 and committed, in its original NDC, to reduce emissions to 1.3 GtCO₂e by 2025 and 1.2 GtCO₂e by 2030, equivalent to 48% and 53% below 2005 levels (incl. LULUCF). In December 2020, Brazil submitted an updated NDC that reaffirmed the same percentage reduction targets and referred to an indicative objective of climate neutrality by 2060 (conditional on international support). However, by revising its 2005 base year emissions upward and no longer specifying absolute emissions levels, the government effectively weakened the targets, increasing implied 2025 and 2030 emissions by over 400 MtCO₂e compared to the original formulation.

In November 2023, under President Lula, Brazil resubmitted the original absolute emissions limits of 1.32 GtCO₂e in 2025 and 1.2 GtCO₂e in 2030 (incl. LULUCF), reversing the recalculations and accounting changes introduced by the previous administration. While this move restored transparency and strengthened the target formulation by clearly emphasising absolute emissions limits, it did not increase overall mitigation ambition or respond to the call to enhance 2030 targets.

Brazil failed to update its 2030 NDC in its latest 2035 NDC submission, which is critical in contributing to closing the emissions gap as soon as possible and limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C. Following Brazil’s submission of the 2035 NDC, the government published the initial version of its National Mitigation Strategy (Government of Brazil, 2025a), which was finalised in March 2026 in line with the National Climate Plan (“Plano Clima”), published around the same time (Government of Brazil, 2026b). These documents include the expected contribution of each sector to both the 2030 and 2035 NDC targets, which was determined using the BLUES (Brazil Land-Use and Energy System) model. The CAT welcomes this added transparency in Brazil’s decarbonisation plans and encourages other countries to follow a similar approach.

We recalculated the 2030 target based on the numbers published in National Climate Plan (“Plano Clima”). Given the Plano Clima aims to transform its land use and forests sector from the current net source of emissions to a net sink of -75 MtCO₂e in 2030, this effectively leads to a higher NDC emissions level excluding LULUCF. In other words, Brazil is planning a slower decarbonisation of its economy than we had previously assumed. As a result, our CAT rating of the 2030 NDC has changed from “Almost sufficient” to “Insufficient” when compared to its fair share and “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways.

While reducing emissions from deforestation is needed globally, in Brazil’s case, it is effectively reducing incentives for the much needed fossil fuel phase out and emissions reductions in other sectors. The projected emissions pathway in the sectoral plans rely on reductions in the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, while projected emissions in other key sectors such as industry, agriculture, energy and transport remain stable or even increase. The reliance on large-scale LULUCF removals assumes continued progress in reducing deforestation and restoring ecosystems. Initiatives like the “Devastation Bill” (which would allow high-impact industries, including agribusiness, mining, and construction, to self-approve projects with minimal regulatory oversight; critically rolling back environmental protection regulations in the country) significantly reduce the credibility of these assumptions.

2035 NDC target

Similarly, for 2035, our analysis concludes that Brazil’s 2035 NDC target is far from being 1.5°C compatible. For a detailed analysis of Brazil’s 2035 NDC submission, please click here.

Brazil should avoid relying on LULUCF sinks to achieve its climate targets as much as possible, given the high chance of carbon loss through deforestation or natural disturbance and eventual competition for land. Emissions reductions should take place across all sectors, which the country would be well-placed to do given its potential in green energy.

Overview rating table

Comparison table

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

The CAT rating compares 2030 NDC targets to country’s fair share contributions to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also compares NDC targets to indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). Most developing countries may need support to achieve emissions reductions in line with its share of a global least-cost pathway to achieving the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal.

Brazil has one 2030 NDC target, so we rate this compared both to the fair share and the modelled domestic pathways. The CAT assesses emissions excluding LULUCF. For more details on this, please see the Assumptions section.

We rate Brazil’s 2030 NDC target as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Brazil’s 2030 NDC leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Brazil’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

This is a significant change from our previous evaluation of the 2030 NDC, which was previously rated as “Almost sufficient” and responds to the recalculation of the 2030 NDC target, driven by updated LULUCF assumptions, as explained above.

Whether Brazil should receive climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions is a matter of debate. Our methods do not provide a clear answer to this question. On balance, the CAT methodology shows Brazil needing a small amount of international support is technically consistent with a wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meet the Paris Agreement's goals. However, this contribution would likely be small under most equity perspectives. The 2030 NDC target to be achieved with Brazil’s own resources needs to be significantly improved to align with the 1.5°C limit, regardless of international support.

The CAT rates Brazil’s 2030 NDC as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Brazil’s 2030 NDC target needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. Brazil’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Brazil’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

This is a downgrade from our previous evaluation of the 2030 NDC, which was previously rated as “Almost sufficient” and responds to the recalculation of the 2030 NDC target, driven by updated LULUCF assumptions, as explained above.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (compared to modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Brazil aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 and climate neutrality by 2050, a target reiterated in its 2024 NDC submission (Government of Brazil, 2024a). The National Mitigation Strategy articulates the goal of carbon neutrality by 2040, relying on net negative emissions to offset non-CO₂ gases, which are considered hard to abate. Between 2010 and 2020, non-CO₂ gases represented 45% of Brazil’s total emissions (Government of Brazil, 2026a). As of June 2026, Brazil has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

Aiming for climate neutrality by 2050 is a step in the right direction: transitioning to a low-emissions development pathway in compliance with international climate change commitments. However, the projected pathway relies heavily on removals in the LULUCF sector, while emission reductions in other sectors remain limited. Brazil should strengthen emission reductions across all sectors and clearly state its plans to achieve this, without overreliance on removals that may not be feasible in the long term.

We evaluate Brazil’s net zero target as: Poor. The full analysis can be found here.