Türkiye

In November 2025, Türkiye submitted its 2035 NDC target, where it commits to reduce its emissions by 466 MtCO₂e below a BAU scenario, limiting total emissions to 643 MtCO₂e in 2035, including emissions from the land use, land use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF) (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2025). Excluding LULUCF, the 2035 target is equivalent to 694 MtCO₂e in 2035 (30% above 2018 levels), an emissions level far from being 1.5°C compatible under both modelled domestic pathways and Türkiye’s fair share. For more information on this target, see the 2035 NDC analysis. The gap between Türkiye’s NDC targets and a 1.5°C compatible level, expressed as a share of 2018 emissions, has widened from about 72% in 2030 to 78% in 2035. For more information, see the 2035 NDC analysis.

In April 2023, Türkiye submitted the first update of its 2030 NDC. Türkiye’s first NDC was its 2015 INDC, which was resubmitted in October 2021 when Türkiye finally ratified the Paris Agreement – one of the last countries to do so.

The updated 2030 NDC aims to reduce GHG emissions (including LULUCF) by 41% below a business-as-usual (BAU) projection by 2030 (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023). The reference BAU projection of 1175 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF) in 2030 used in the updated NDC is the same as in its previous submissions (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023; Republic of Türkiye, 2015, 2021). The updated 2030 NDC aims for a 2030 emissions level of 699 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF), which equates to 749 MtCO₂e once the LULUCF sector is excluded. The CAT rates this target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to both modelled domestic pathways and Türkiye’s fair share.

As Türkiye prepares to host COP31 in November 2026, it faces a crisis of contradiction: while calling for accelerated action on climate, its own targets are weak and lack the ambition necessary to drive much-needed emissions reductions. The 2035 NDC target would see emissions plateau or even increase over the next decade, undermining its credibility as a driver of climate action. Türkiye could lead by example as a COP host by strengthening its climate targets and committing to phase out fossil fuels in the power sector.

Türkiye has adopted a 2053 net zero target, which the CAT rates as “Poor.” For our full analysis, see the Net Zero section.

In April 2023, Türkiye submitted its first updated 2030 NDC, increasing the unconditional emissions reduction target from a 21% to a 41% reduction from BAU by 2030 including LULUCF (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023). However, the BAU scenario used for this reduction target comes from its 2015 INDC. This BAU scenario assumes a much faster increase in Türkiye’s GHG emissions from its 2012 reference year than what has actually occurred, making the reduction target easier to achieve (Republic of Türkiye, 2015, 2022).

The updated NDC results in a 2030 emissions level of 699 MtCO₂e including LULUCF or 749 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF (Republic of Türkiye, 2019). This updated NDC allows GHG emissions to increase by 30% compared to 2018 levels, excluding LULUCF.

Türkiye submitted its 2035 NDC target in November 2025, committing to reduce its emissions by 466 MtCO₂e below a BAU scenario, limiting total emissions to 643 MtCO₂e in 2035 (incl. LULUCF). Türkiye’s 2035 NDC did not increase the ambition of its 2030 target. For more information, see the 2035 NDC analysis.

Türkiye is on track to significantly overachieve both its 2030 and 2035 targets under current policies, which further highlights the lack of ambition. As it stands, neither NDC target can be considered a serious attempt by Türkiye to reduce its emissions in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Türkiye needs to set climate targets that will drive real emission reductions.

Ideally, these targets would be expressed as an absolute emissions limit or reduction from a historical base year, excluding emissions from LULUCF. In fact, the key weakness of Türkiye's NDCs are their reliance on a BAU baseline, which is unrealistic compared to historical data and current trends.

The 2035 target aims to reduce emissions by 446 MtCO₂e, but this is measured against a BAU projection of 1,109 MtCO₂e, nearly double Türkiye's 2024 emissions of 585 MtCO₂e (Republic of Türkiye, 2025, 2026). A reduction below this unrealistically high reference level makes Türkiye’s 2035 target seem ambitious on paper, but still allows emissions to continue rising over the next decade. This clearly does not align with the Paris Agreement goal and undermines Türkiye’s own plans to reach net zero by 2053.

At a minimum, Türkiye could provide a baseline emissions pathway in its 2035 NDC and explain how its BAU scenario was constructed. The 2035 NDC asserts that further details on the target’s methodology will be communicated in Türkiye’s next Biennial Transparency Report (BTR), which is expected by the end of 2026.

As it stands, it is difficult to consider either the 2030 or 2035 targets as meaningful efforts by Türkiye to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Comparison Table

*Türkiye’s 2021 NDC submission used Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), while its 2023 NDC uses GWP values from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). For assessing targets against fair share, we consider both a country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

The CAT rates Türkiye’s updated NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when rated against both modelled domestic pathways and against its fair share contribution. Türkiye has one 2030 NDC target. It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support or whether its NDC has an international element, so we rate its NDC target against both modelled domestic pathways and fairness metrics.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We rate Türkiye’s 2030 NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Türkiye is on track to achieve this target based on our emissions estimate for 2030 under current policies, which further highlights the weakness of this target as it will not drive real-world emission reductions.

We rate Türkiye’s 2030 NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We do not have sufficient information to assess Türkiye’s climate finance contribution.

Under the UNFCCC, Türkiye is an Annex I country and thus not eligible to receive climate finance through the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Our methods do not provide a clear recommendation on the need for finance for Türkiye.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Türkiye released its long-term strategy (LTS) at COP29 (İklim Değişikliği Başkanliği [Climate Change Directorate], 2024), which reaffirmed its previously announced target of reaching net zero emissions by 2053. If Türkiye successfully achieves this target, it would be a commendable contribution to the global effort to combat climate change. However, as the LTS is currently set out, we do not deem it a strong attempt to realise the 2053 goal. We evaluate the target as: “Poor.”

For the full analysis, see the Net Zero page.